Gold set for fourth weekly fall as Mideast war boosts rate-hike bets

Gold prices held steady on Friday, but were on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, as surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict fuelled inflation concerns and bolstered bets on higher-for-longer global interest rates.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was little changed at $4,380.39 per ounce as of 0101 GMT. Bullion has fallen more ‌than 2% ⁠so ⁠far this week.


* U.S. gold futures for April delivery were steady at $4,375.

* Gold has fallen about 17% since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, which has gained more than 2% over the same period.

* Brent crude held above $105 a barrel, stoking inflation fears, as the conflict has all but halted ⁠shipments through ‌the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit for roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows.

* Higher oil prices threaten ⁠to push up transport and manufacturing costs, adding to inflationary pressures. Although inflation typically boosts gold's appeal as a hedge, high interest rates weigh on demand for the non-yielding asset.

* Traders have fully priced out any Federal Reserve easing for 2026, compared with expectations for two cuts before the Iran conflict erupted, per the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said ‌he would extend a pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities into April and that talks with Iran were going "very well," but an Iranian ⁠official dismissed the U.S. proposal to end the war as "one-sided and unfair."

* Separately, U.S. data showed jobless claims rose slightly last week, signalling a still-stable labor market and giving the Fed room to keep rates steady while monitoring inflation risks linked to the war.

* Spot silver fell 0.8% to $67.47 per ounce. Spot platinum lost 0.2% to $1,823.40, while palladium gained 1.3% to $1,370.75.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0700 US Retail Sales MM, YY Feb

0700 UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM Feb

1300 US U Mich Sentiment Final Mar