Gold dips on firmer dollar; US inflation data in focus

Gold slipped on Thursday as the dollar firmed, while investors assessed policy signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Kevin Warsh after the central bank left interest rates unchanged and awaited key US inflation data due later in the day.

Fundamentals

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,039.26 per ounce by 0044 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery steadied at $4,051.00.

The dollar held firm, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.


The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday as expected, opting to delay any changes to borrowing costs until after next week's US midterm elections while it awaits further data on inflation, which the central bank said "remains elevated."

Traders are pricing in about a 78% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with 84% before the announcement, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.

Markets are awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due at 1230 GMT, a key gauge closely watched by the Fed as it targets a 2% inflation rate.

The European Central Bank is set to keep rates on hold on Thursday in a well-telegraphed decision that is likely to be overshadowed by questions about bond-market turmoil in France.

Global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, citing rising energy prices and disruptions to cargo shipping during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and high demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in September rose more than 28% from August to a five-month high, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Wednesday.

On the geopolitical front, Yemen's Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday, Yemeni government forces said, after the Iran-aligned group warned people to evacuate the facility as fighting escalated in the impoverished country caught in the wider Middle East conflict.

Spot silver slid 0.7% to $53.60 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.3% to $1,533.50 and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,017.29.

Data/Events (Gmt)

1000 EU Consumer Confid. Final, October

1230 US Consumption, Adjusted MM, September

1230 US Core PCE Price Index MM, YY, September

1230 US PCE Price Index MM, YY, September

1230 US GDP Advance Q3 1230 US Initial Jobless Clm 24 Oct, w/e

1315 EU ECB Refinancing, Deposit Rate, October