Gold dips as dollar ticks up; all eyes on inflation data

Gold prices edged lower on Friday as the dollar firmed to a near one-month high, while investors awaited a key inflation report due later in the day for more cues on U.S. monetary policy trajectory.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold dipped 0.1% to $4,995.91 per ounce by 0149 GMT.


* U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.3% at $5,013.60.

* The dollar ‌was poised ⁠to cap ⁠its strongest weekly performance since October, buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge.

* Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, which means low volumes and possibly volatile moves, traders said.

* Investors awaited the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, ⁠the Fed's ‌preferred inflation gauge, for more cues on U.S. monetary policy. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

* Markets currently expect ⁠three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

* Goldman Sachs said in a note that it expects significant upside risks to its gold end-2026 price forecast of $5,400 on further private sector diversification when expressed through call-option structures.

* It also said it continues to see the medium-term trajectory for gold prices as upward, potentially with elevated volatility.

* U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must make ‌a deal over its nuclear programme or "really bad things" will happen, and set a deadline of 10 to 15 days, drawing a threat from Tehran to retaliate ⁠against U.S. bases in the region if attacked.

* Spot silver eased 0.1% to $78.29 per ounce.

* Spot platinum edged 0.3% down to $2,064.27 per ounce, while palladium lost 0.5% to $1,677.19.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0700 UK Retail Sales MM, YY Jan

0700 UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM Jan

0815 France HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Feb

0830 Germany HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Feb

0900 EU HCOB Mfg, Services, Composite Flash PMI Feb

0900 UK Manufacturing, Composite, Services PMI Feb

1330 US Consumption, Adjusted MM Dec

1330 US Core PCE Price Index MM, YY Dec

1330 US PCE Price Index MM, YY Dec

1330 US GDP Advance Q4

1445 US S&P Global Mfg, Scvs, Comp PMI Flash Feb

1400 US U Mich Sentiment Final Feb

1400 New Home Sales-Units Dec.