Copper price's record rally highlights global mining-smelting mismatch, IPCPA says

A growing mismatch between global copper mining and smelting capacity is adding to supply pressures and helping drive copper prices to record levels, the Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) said.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange touched a record USD 14,737 a tonne in September 2026, up nearly 50 per cent over the past year, as expectations of US tariffs, tighter mine supply and sharp shifts in global inventories reshape the market, the association said.

Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have been shipped to the United States since the start of the year to take advantage of the price premium between the Comex and LME markets, according to IPCPA.


The US Commerce Department's report on potential copper import tariffs is nearly two months overdue, but the market continues to price in the possibility of trade restrictions, supporting elevated prices, the association said.

The prospect of tariffs has triggered a major redistribution of copper inventories.

Comex stocks have surged to a record 6,75,000 tonnes, while inventories in LME warehouses have fallen to critically low levels, tightening the metal availability in other markets, IPCPA said.

The resulting concentration of copper stocks in the United States comes as global mine output has been slightly weaker because of operational challenges at three to four major mines, it added.

At the same time, China's continued expansion of smelting capacity is placing additional pressure on an already constrained supply of copper concentrates.

That imbalance is being reflected in treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs - fees paid to smelters to process copper concentrate.

TC/RCs have fallen to unprecedented levels of around negative USD 1,300 a tonne, from positive levels of roughly USD 300-400 a tonne, according to IPCPA.

The sharp decline is a sign that smelters are facing increasing financial pressure as competition for copper concentrates intensifies, while mining capacity fails to keep pace with expanding global refining and smelting capacity.

The divergence between mine supply and smelting capacity is creating a structural constraint in the copper market, rather than simply reflecting a temporary inventory imbalance, IPCPA said.

Copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic industrial commodity because of its extensive use in power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy, construction and other infrastructure associated with electrification and the energy transition.

The association said the latest market developments highlight the need to address the structural gap between copper mining and processing capacity as demand for the metal rises.

The copper market is facing pressure at several points in the supply chain. Mine disruptions have constrained concentrate availability, while new smelting capacity - particularly in China - has increased demand for the raw material.

The resulting squeeze on concentrates has pushed treatment and refining charges sharply lower, reducing the economics of smelting even as the underlying price of refined copper has climbed.

IPCPA is the industry body representing leading copper producers in India, including Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper Limited, Adani Kutch Copper and Vedanta's Sterlite Copper.