Copper-gold ratio signals bulls may have got carried away

By Eddie van der Walt

Investors briefly rediscovered their inner bulls, with stocks rallying this week while bonds and haven currencies fell. But hold on -- the copper-gold ratio is still flashing red.

Bullion peaked at a six-year high of $1,557.11 an ounce on Wednesday and it now takes less than four ounces of gold to buy a ton of copper. The average over the past five years is 4.7. Changes in this relationship are interesting, because one metal is a haven and the other an input into industrial applications. That makes their relative valuations a good window into risk appetite -- lower is less.

And there’s plenty to keep the market worried. The U.S.-China trade war is still dominating the agenda, with the negotiators set to meet in October.

Global factories are churning slower, with contracting manufacturing PMIs from China to Germany now spreading into the world’s biggest economy. And Britain still risks a cliff-edge break with the European Union at the end of next month, threatening further setbacks in the U.K. and the EU.