Commodity Radar: Sell gold on rise. 4 technical triggers to support the trade

Gold continues to remain a ‘sell-on-rise’ trade, undergoing a phase of consolidation. June futures on MCX rose over Rs 600 (0.4%) to breach the Rs 1.5 lakh mark on Monday, despite subdued global cues. The yellow metal has corrected nearly 26%, or about Rs 53,000, from its all-time high amid persistent profit booking and rising concerns that elevated energy prices due to the Iran-Israel conflict could delay interest rate cuts, dampening sentiment.

Jateen Trivedi, Vice President, Research Analyst at LKP Securities said gold has entered a pullback consolidation phase after a sharp rejection from highs near Rs 1,54,000+, with the price now stabilizing around Rs 1,49,500. "The structure reflects distribution near the top and lower high formation, suggesting a sell-on-rise opportunity unless resistance is decisively breached," he said.

INR movement continues to amplify MCX gold swings and Trivedi opines that any rupee strength could further pressure domestic gold prices during pullbacks.


"Gold remains highly sensitive to macro triggers this week and geopolitical volatility (US–Israel–Iran) is expected to support downside cushioning," said the LKP analyst. "US data risk (FOMC, CPI, GDP) is creating uncertainty. This combination supports volatile but non-trending behavior with the downside risk on rallies," the analyst added.

4 technical triggers to watch out for:

1) Key support & resistance

Price has corrected sharply and is now moving sideways below key resistance, indicating weak recovery attempts. Immediate resistance is seen at Rs 1,50,500 – Rs 1,51,000 while major resistance at Rs 1,53,000. Immediate support is seen at Rs 1,48,500 while a major support at Rs 1,47,500.

Failure to sustain above Rs 1,51,000 keeps downside pressure intact.

2) Momentum indicators

RSI is near 47–48, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum. The inability to reclaim 55–60 zone suggests lack of strong buying strength. Price is hovering around the middle band, showing consolidation after volatility expansion. Bands are flattening, indicating range with downside bias.

3) Moving averages

EMA 8 (Red): Acting as immediate resistance
EMA 21 (Yellow): Flat to slightly downward

Price trading below both EMAs confirms short-term bearish control.

4) MACD

MACD remains in negative territory, though flattening slightly. This suggests bearish momentum persists but with limited acceleration—ideal for sell-on-rise setups.

Gold trading strategy

Trivedi recommends a 'Sell on rise' strategy around Rs 1,50,500 – Rs 1,51,000 with a stop loss above Rs 1,53,000 on a closing basis and a target of Rs 1,47,500.

Gold is likely to face selling pressure near resistance zones as long as it remains below ₹1,51,000, with downside targets toward ₹1,47,500 in the near term, Trivedi said.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)