Commodity outlook: Sell crude oil, nickel on rise

Gold prices snapped a five session decline and traded positive after various measure undertaken by the Fed with an objective to stabilize the economy amidst the coronavirus outbreak. Fed reported to reinstate a funding facility used during 2008 financial crisis to buy short-term corporate debt directly from companies to help relieve credit markets under strain from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Base metals have been under pressure for yet another session with copper sliding to a 40-month low on the LME on slowing demand, Fed expectations of surpluses and a large amount of metal delivered to LME warehouses. A rising dollar also makes US dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially subduing demand.

Oil prices flirted around levels of $30 as markets are being pushed deeper into turmoil by unprecedented simultaneous demand and supply shocks. On the supply side, Saudi Aramco plans to ship 10Mbpd, this works out to more than 40% higher exports than in Jan and Feb when Saudi exports fell below 7Mbpd. The surprise inventory draw failed to move markets after data showed draw of 4,21,000 bpd versus expectation for a 2.933 Mbpd.


Motilal Oswal Commodities Research lists how different commodities may trade in the second half of the session today:

MCX Gold
MCX Gold has intraday resistance at Rs 40130 - 40370 whereas supports are placed at Rs 39310 -39040 levels. Sideways-to-positive move will be seen as long as price holds above support.

Gold $ (SPOT)
Spot Gold has supports at $1455 - 1440 whereas resistance is at $1508 - 1525 levels.

MCX Silver
MCX Silver has support at Rs 33940 - 33850 whereas resistance is at Rs 34970 - 35270. Sideways consolidation will be seen for the session.

Silver $ (SPOT)
SPOT Silver has resistance at $12.30 - 12.55 whereas support is at $11.65 - 11.45.

MCX Copper
Bias for MCX Copper remains weak below resistance at Rs 372 - 375 area. Pullback towards Rs 366.50 - 369 zone will be a good selling opportunity. Support is at Rs 354 - 350 levels.

MCX Nickel
MCX Nickel is likely to trade with negative bias as long as Rs 850 - 857 is capped as strong resistance. Support is placed at Rs 826 - 825 levels. Selling on rise around Rs 843 - 847 is advised.

MCX Crude Oil
MCX Crude Oil will trade with negative bias as long as Rs 1880 - 1930 is capped as resistance. Support is placed at Rs 1765 - 1730 levels. Selling on rise is advised for short-term.

MCX Natural Gas
MCX Natural will trade sideways-to-negative bias for the session. Support is placed at Rs 119 - 115.50. Resistance is at Rs 128 - 132 levels.

MCX Lead
MCX Lead will trade in a lower range for the session. Support is at Rs 124.90 - 122 whereas resistance is at Rs 130.30 - 132.50 area.

MCX Zinc
MCX Zinc looks weak below resistance at Rs 136.15 -137.50 area whereas support is placed at Rs 131.70 - 129.

MCX Aluminium(Delivery Contract)
MCX Aluminum will trade in a sideways range for the session having support at Rs 131.90 - 130 whereas resistance is at Rs 135.10 - 137.