Kharif rice output may touch 80.41 mt

A good southwest monsoon this year is expected to ensure the kharif rice production to 80.41 million tonne from 75.91 million tonne in the previous year. The production figure could have been an all-time high this year had there been no floods across Punjab and Haryana and poor rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Punjab and Haryana have seen a 6-10% fall in procurement targets for the Food Corporation of India ( FCI). Compared to 94.28 lakh tonne rice procured from Punjab in 2009, this year's target is 87-88 lakh tonne. Similarly, in Haryana over 17.3 lakh tonne rice will be procured this year compared to 18.3 lakh tonne in the drought year of 2009. Arrivals in UP, West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand mandis are expected to be lower owing to a fall in area under paddy due to deficient rainfall. However, as per a satellite survey done on behalf of the All India Rice Exporters Association, acreage under cultivation of basmati has increased 28% from the previous year's at over 1.8 million hectare.

Domestic prices

As on November 1, the country has a buffer stock of 231 lakh tonne, compared to 216.21 lakh tonne in the same period previous year. This is likely to keep rice prices stable in the domestic market. Since Diwali, traders have seen a slight increase in prices. Parmal rice was fetching Rs 2,100-2,200 from last year's Rs 1,800-1,900. The broken Parmal was selling at Rs 1,600 per quintal. With a good crop of traditional basmati the market prices have crashed this year to touch Rs 6,500 to Rs 7,000 per quintal. However, Pusa 1121 prices, which was sown in less area this year, ruled around Rs 5,000-5,200 per quintal. Sharbati prices were currently ruling at Rs 2,900 -3,000 per quintal.

Global supply

In the international market demand for 25% broken rice is more and prices have risen from $389 per tonne to $425 per tonne. Major rice suppliers include Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam. Similarly, the demand for superior aromatic rice from Thailand and Pakistan are on a higher side, fetching $800-950 per tonne. Traders feel that Indian superior non-basmati rices like sharbati, sugandha, sohna masuri and other superior varieties should be exported with a cap of 5 lakh tonne at an MEP of $900 per tonne.

Export scenario

Currently, importers from Saudi Arabia and Iran were placing small orders. The Saudi companies are placing orders for 2,000-3,000 tonne compared to 20,000-30,000 in the previous year. With Pakistani rice exporters stating that the Pusa 1121 crop is 35% higher in their country even after the floods, the current Indian prices are not attractive to the importers.