Gold prices may face near-term retracement due to stronger dollar, yields

Stronger bond yields and the US dollar, risk-on in equities, a boost to cryptocurrencies and the quelling of geopolitical risk might see a near-term retracement in gold prices, according to the monthly gold market report released by the World Gold Council today.

The start of November saw gold pressured by higher opportunity costs and a Republican clean sweep. The first week of November saw gold move lower after hitting a new all-time high on the first of the month.

According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM), gold was pressured lower by strength in the US dollar and momentum factors including the lagged gold price, gold ETF outflows which were coming off a solid month and a drop in COMEX net managed money net longs – reflecting the likely unwind of pre-election hedges


Global gold ETFs shed an estimated US$809mn (12 tonnes) during the first week of November, with the bulk of outflows stemming from North America, partially offset by strong Asian inflows. Potentially signalling renewed fears around the resumption of the trade war between the US and China. Additionally, COMEX net positioning also fell 74 tonnes, an 8% drop from the prior week.