Deccan floods hit major kharif crops hard

MUMBAI: The output of major kharif crops grown in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra could be affected or vulnerable to downside risks because of the recent floods in these states.

The vulnerability ratio (the proportion of affected output to total production) is quite high in the case of chilli and tur (see table), with AP and Karnataka being particularly affected by the floods, observes a report released by agri futures bourse National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on Wednesday. Maize, turmeric and groundnut are also high in the vulnerability zone, while sugarcane and bajra are relatively less affected.

Khrif crops are usually grown between June and September with the commencement of the Southwest monsoon. Based on the FY06 and FY07 shares of flood-affected districts in production in the three states and on FY07 and FY08 shares of various states in total production, the proportions have been juxtaposed on the previous financial year���s total production numbers to gauge the level of output that would be affected (vulnerability ratio) by the floods.

However, since the report has drawn on data of past production shares of states and districts within them, it admits that there could be margins of error in case these proportions change in either FY09 or FY10. For instance, in the shares of various states in total production, it is understood that there could be variations of up to 5-10% in the previous as well as the current financial year.

���While a reduction in crop output is certain due to the floods, we may not as yet be able to put a finger on the extent of damage,��� said SK Srivastava, deputy general manager (agri business), SBI. ���The tragic loss to life and property apart, the floods may be seen as a blessing in disguise as they will help increase soil moisture levels, in turn benefiting the upcoming rabi season crop and also the next kharif season crop.���

The report also cautions that ���the vulnerability ratio is an indication of the maximum level of production in flood areas that could be affected and does not imply that output will actually be down to this extent���.

Importantly, while major kharif crops have been covered, two spices, chilli and turmeric, have also been included even though their harvest begins around December. The thought is that the floods could influence crop prospects as several farmers in these areas would have been displaced and hence it is not clear as to how much of the area could be cultivated this year.