Cotton output likely to rise 10%

KOLKATA: India appears to maintain the upswing in cotton production in the current season too (June ’06-July ’07). Given the current status of the crop at the field level, the industry estimates cotton production in the country will touch around 260-275 lakh bales in the current year against 245 lakh bales in ’05-06 and 243 lakh bales in the preceding year.

Cotton production is estimated to grow 8-10% in the current year despite some initial damage to the crop due to floods in Gujarat and Maharashtra about a month ago. However, the industry estimates that the initial damage would be contained with increase in the acreage under Bt cotton and hybrid varieties of cottonseed this year. This apart, relatively higher cotton prices in the last season has also motivated traditional cotton farmers not to switch over to other kharif crops, said Sandeep Bajoria, president, All India Cottonseed Crushers’ Association.

The forecast of higher cotton crop this year has started generating enquiries from cotton importers, especially from China. Banking on the estimation of higher cotton crop and rising demand for the fibre in China, the industry estimates that cotton export will in all probability exceed the last year’s level of 43 lakh bales.

India has emerged as the second largest supplier of cotton to China although it is way behind the US, the world’s largest cotton exporter. It is creditable that India could gain second position in the Chinese raw cotton market, a country till recently importing a large quantity of cotton, Mr Bajoria said.

According to the US-based International Cotton Advisory Committee, the world cotton exports in ’06-07 are forecast to touch a new high at 9.4m tonnes against the last year’s level of 9.3m tonnes. China’s imports are projected to move up to 4.2m tonnes this year as against its last year’s import of 4.2m tonnes. India with export potential of around 70 lakh bales (1.2m tonnes) will continue to remain the second largest exporter of cotton to China, after the US, ICAC said.

China, according to ICAC, imported 3.5m tonnes of raw cotton (app 20.8m bales of 170 kg each) during August ’05-May ’06. Of this, it imported 0.4m tonnes (about 2.5m bales) of cotton from India. As per the latest ICAC projection, world cotton production in ’06-07 is expected to come down marginally to about 24.7m tonnes from 24.8m tonnes in ’05-06.

Although the total world cotton area during ’06-07 may remain virtually unchanged, there is possibility of significant decline in area under cotton due to unfavourable weather in the northern hemisphere, particularly the US, said the report.