Commodity Radar: Zinc’s overbought condition to trigger near term consolidation
Zinc contracts on MCX rose 0.27% to Rs 294/kg, defying global declines. Supply shortages, low LME stocks, and refining bottlenecks supported prices, while technical indicators suggest bullish momentum with potential upside to Rs 310.
MCX zinc bucks global trends, rising on tight supply and low inventories. Technical charts indicate bullish momentum, with targets set at Rs 299–310 per kg.
Zinc contracts on the MCX were trading with gains on Tuesday bucking trends in major international markets like the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).
The October contracts were trading at Rs 294 per kg today around 3:30 pm, up by Rs .80 or 0.27%. Meanwhile, three-month contracts on the LME were down nearly 1% and hovering around $3007. On the SHFE, the price was 21,140 CNY/mt, down by CNY 565 or 2.60%.
Highlighting the reasons behind Zinc’s recent uptick, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President - Research at Religare Broking said that global zinc inventories have gone down sharply, with LME stocks falling over 60% this year, indicating supply shortages.
“While mined zinc production has risen, bottlenecks in refining keep the refined metal supply constrained, supporting higher prices. Risks include potential EU tariffs on steel which could reduce zinc demand but current market sentiment remains positive due to tightness in supply and demand fundamentals,” Mishra said.
Technical view
Decoding the charts, the Religare expert said that MCX zinc is showing a strong uptrend with prices currently near Rs 293, having cleared key moving averages. This suggests bullish momentum with momentum indicators affirming the uptrend but indicates an overbought condition.
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He warns against near-term corrections or consolidation while placing the support around Rs 282-284, with resistance near Rs 298-300 levels. “If this resistance is crossed, it could trigger further upside towards Rs 310+ in the medium term,” he added.
Trading strategy
Recommended strategy is to go for long positions around Rs 288-290 with stop loss below Rs 282 and targets at Rs 299 and Rs 310.
