China's soya, corn imports seen surging

SINGAPORE: China, the world’s second-largest corn consumer, may boost imports fourfold this year as meat demand climbs and the country enters “a golden age” of consumption, says Morgan Stanley. Imports may increase to 4 million tonne in 2011-2012 from 1 million tonne the previous year, analysts led by Hussein Allidina wrote in a report e-mailed on Wednesday.

Soyabean purchases may gain to 57 million tonne from 52 million tonne, they said. Rising incomes and improving diets in China, which has four times the population of the US, are raising food consumption as more people move to the cities .

Increasing purchases may help curb a 12% drop in soyabean futures this year in Chicago and bolster a 4.1% increase in corn, adding pressure to global food costs that fell 5% from a record in February. “China is entering a golden age for consumption as incomes rise and the poverty rate ratio falls,” the analysts said. Its share of global demand only stands to grow as rising percapita income drives further westernization of diets, they said.

Purchases of corn may rise to 5.4 million tonne in 2012-2013 and to 9.4 million tonne the year after, while soyabean imports may climb to almost 70 million tonne in two years, the bank said. Corn for December delivery advanced 0.7% to $6.55 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 3:28 pm Singapore time on Wednesday, and soyabeans for January delivery gained 0.5% to $12.3975 a bushel.

The country, the second-largest sugar user after India, may boost overseas purchases to 2.8 million tonne this season from 2.3 million tonne a year before, driven by demand from drinks and candy makers, the bank said. Demand has “large room to grow” as per-capita sugar consumption is only one-third that of Japan and oneeighth of the US, it said. Cotton imports may climb to 3.3 million tonne this season from 2.6 million tonne as demand from textile makers outpaces production, it said.