Castro may relax, despite nickel reserves

MUMBAI: Dictatorships have usually thrived in economies that are dependant on commodities like sugar, cocoa, coffee, oil, cotton or metals. A look at dictatorships shows a correlation between price and longevity. Consider Fidel Castro who tops the dictatorship longevity charts.

Once, Cuba’s mainstay was sugar. But who wants sugar these days? No one: too many calories. But oil is good, and both Muammar Qaddafi of Libya and Omar Bongo of Gabon are sitting on decent oil reserves. Mr Qaddafi saw the writing on the wall and improved his manners, while Mr Bongo is perhaps too small a target to interest the Navy Seals.

There are countries like Togo and Equatorial Guinea, whose economy depends on cocoa, and over the time that they have been dictatorships, the inflation-adjusted price of cocoa has remained static at $95-99. Ditto for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan which are chiefly cotton countries. The price of cotton hasn’t changed very much since they have been dictatorships. So, none of these countries perhaps face much of a risk of global scrutiny.

But Mr Castro does. Cuba has large reserves of nickel, the inflation-adjusted price of which has more than trebled over the past 20 years, going from $4,720 per unit to $16,000. But, considering that nickel is largely used in making stainless steel, an activity that now takes place more in China than in the developed world, or in nickel cadmium mobile batteries, which are fast being replaced by lithium ion ones, the old Cuban warhorse may be able to smoke his cigar in peace.

In any case, with the way things are going in Iraq, the US Army has its hands full over the foreseeable future.