Buy palladium and dump gold, says precious metals forecasters

Investors may not want to get too used to this month’s surprise rally in gold. Some of the most accurate precious metals forecasters say the gains won’t last and instead expect palladium to advance, even though it’s off to worst start in decades. After dropping for three straight years, gold has advanced more than any other metal in January.

Bullion’s appeal as a haven got a boost from political tension in the Middle East and Asia and global market turmoil. At the same time, industrial commodities have tumbled.

Palladium, a metal used mostly for catalytic converters in cars, fell 12%in January. “The gold market is benefiting from geopolitical news and Chinese stock-market uncertainty, and these factors are unlikely to last,” said Bernard Dahdahat Natixis SA, who made the accurate call on gold last year in a survey of 31analysts by the London Bullion Market Association.

“Palladium looks far more appealing based on its fundamentals. It is going to rally on increased Chinese car demand.”

Higher US interest rates and a stronger dollar will return the pressure on gold, while accelerating demand for cars in China, will give a jolt to palladium.