Oil slide, Treasury strength boost Indian bonds

Indian government bonds soared on Wednesday, as crude's steep descent in recent sessions emboldened traders to add positions, while a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections lifted hopes of peace in the Middle East.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield was down 4 basis points at 7.2594% at 11:30 a.m. IST. It was headed for a third straight decline after easing more than 11 basis points over the previous two sessions.

US Treasury yields softened, with the 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 4.94%, after touching 4.89% earlier.


Democrats have captured majorities in both the Senate and House, delivering sweeping wins that reached deep into Republican strongholds and dealt a sharp setback to President Donald Trump.

Investors sought safety on expectations of policy gridlock that could curb government spending. Slower AI regulation and growth could also temper the need for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Brent crude briefly tested $100 per barrel on Tuesday as investors watched for the midterms' outcome and its implications for Middle East peace talks. It inched higher in Asian trade to $103 per barrel.

"Focus is on how Treasuries and oil react, and how that reshapes the macro backdrop domestically," a private-bank trader said.

India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, is highly vulnerable to oil-price swings. Traders have increased bets on interest-rate hikes as rising oil has heightened inflation risks.

Markets are tracking Qatar-led mediation efforts to avert an escalation of attacks after the midterm elections.

RATES

India's overnight indexed swap dived as softer oil eased rate hike worries.

The one-year OIS rate fell 9 bps to 6.54%, the two-year rate eased 7 bps to 6.57%, and the five-year rate dropped 5.25 bps to 6.68%.