Japan bond yields rise as Middle East war fans inflation woes

Japanese government bond yields climbed across the curve on Friday, driven by higher crude oil prices and a weaker yen, as the Middle East war strengthened inflation concerns. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose ‌6 basis points ⁠to ⁠2.240%. The yield on the 40-year JGB, Japan's longest tenor, rose 3 bps to 3.74%.

Yields move inversely to bond prices. "What is particularly notable right now is the simultaneous rise in crude oil prices and the weakening of the yen," said Ryutaro Kimura, senior bond strategist at AXA Investment Managers.

"In terms of ⁠yen-denominated imported ‌energy, it acts in an upward direction on Japan's headline inflation, creating upward pressure on interest rates."


Japan depends ⁠on the Middle East for around 95% of its oil imports.

The 20-year JGB yield climbed 5 bps to 3.11%. The 30-year yield added 4 bps to 3.51%.

The BOJ is set to hold its policy meeting next week. All 64 analysts surveyed in the latest Reuters poll expect the central bank to keep its key interest rate ‌unchanged.

The two-year yield, which is the most sensitive to Bank of Japan policy rates, increased 2.5 bps to 1.28%. The five-year yield rose ⁠5.5 bps to 1.680%.

The yen slid to 159.455 per U.S. dollar, the weakest since July 2024.

"Market participants remain divided over what the BOJ will emphasize next week: whether it will focus on the pressure that higher crude oil prices put on consumers and the economy, or on the fact that they push headline inflation higher," he said.