India's 10-year bond falls for 10th week in record slump
Indian government bonds have experienced their worst decline in thirty years, falling consecutively for ten weeks. Rising crude oil prices and a hawkish central bank stance have impacted the market negatively. The benchmark repo rate was recently ...
By Reuters |
IANS
Indian government bonds fell for a 10th straight week on Friday, their worst falling streak in three decades, as elevated crude prices and bets of a hawkish central bank battered the market.
India's central bank earlier this month raised the benchmark repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its policy stance to "calibrated tightening," signalling it may be prepared to tighten policy rates further if price pressures become more entrenched.
The minutes of the meeting and the wider macroeconomic backdrop means that the policy rate will touch 6% by February, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership said in a note.
"While a 25 bps hike in December is a done deal, a bigger 50 bps hike could make sense tactically depending on incoming data and global developments."
On Friday, the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond ended at 7.4740%, against 7.4596% in the previous session. The yield rose 9 basis points this week, after surging 62 bps in the previous nine weeks, the steepest rise since 1998. Yields move inversely to prices.
The benchmark Brent crude was hovering around $115 a barrel, its highest in nearly six months, as rising geopolitical tensions heightened fears of further disruption to global energy supplies.
India is substantially exposed to a sustained rise in crude prices because it imports close to 90% of its oil requirements.
Higher oil costs widen the country's import bill, impact the currency and inflation outlook and weaken public finances.
RATES
India's overnight indexed swap rates stayed largely unchanged through the week, with most of the negatives already priced in.
The 1-year OIS rate ended at 6.58%, while the 2-year rate closed at 6.65% and the liquid 5-year rate settled at 6.8150%.
India's central bank earlier this month raised the benchmark repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its policy stance to "calibrated tightening," signalling it may be prepared to tighten policy rates further if price pressures become more entrenched.
The minutes of the meeting and the wider macroeconomic backdrop means that the policy rate will touch 6% by February, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership said in a note.
"While a 25 bps hike in December is a done deal, a bigger 50 bps hike could make sense tactically depending on incoming data and global developments."
On Friday, the benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond ended at 7.4740%, against 7.4596% in the previous session. The yield rose 9 basis points this week, after surging 62 bps in the previous nine weeks, the steepest rise since 1998. Yields move inversely to prices.
The benchmark Brent crude was hovering around $115 a barrel, its highest in nearly six months, as rising geopolitical tensions heightened fears of further disruption to global energy supplies.
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India is substantially exposed to a sustained rise in crude prices because it imports close to 90% of its oil requirements.
Higher oil costs widen the country's import bill, impact the currency and inflation outlook and weaken public finances.
RATES
India's overnight indexed swap rates stayed largely unchanged through the week, with most of the negatives already priced in.
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The 1-year OIS rate ended at 6.58%, while the 2-year rate closed at 6.65% and the liquid 5-year rate settled at 6.8150%.
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