Indian bonds rangebound as traders await a hawkish RBI verdict

Indian government bonds ended largely unchanged on Tuesday with modest gains in the benchmark paper, as traders saw little room for further moves after pricing in an expected central bank rate hike on Wednesday.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield settled at 7.1928%, down from 7.2108% on Monday.

The benchmark yield has risen for seven straight weeks togain a cumulative 45 basis points, its longest such streak in over a year.


Overall sentiment remained cautious as investors braced for a hawkish monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with some fearing additional policy actions along with a rate hike.

A Reuters poll showed that about 60% of economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points, with traders not completely ruling out the possibility of additional debt sales or a small hike in banks' cash reserve ratio (CRR).

"The Indian bond market is pricing in a repo rate hike of 25 basis points and a temporary CRR hike of 50 basis points. Bonds have already factored in a 100 basis points of rate hikes in the current cycle," said Murthy Nagarajan, fixed income head at Tata Asset Management.

"If the RBI Governor is not hawkish in his comments, the debt market may stabilise at current levels and 10-year benchmark may trade in the band of 7.15% to 7.25%."

Investors will also closely watch for further measures aimed at absorbing surplus banking-system liquidity, after the RBI sold bonds worth 1 trillion rupees ($10.4 billion) in September, its largest sale for any financial year in over a decade.

RATES

India's overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates eased after a relentless spike in the last few days.

The one-year OIS rate ended 2.5 bps lower at 6.2375%, the two-year rate fell 4.5 bps to 6.41% and the five-year rate settled 2.5 bps lower at 6.67%.