India bonds under pressure as state debt supply swells, oil stays elevated

Indian government bonds declined in early trade on Tuesday, pressured by heavy state debt supply toward the end of the financial year and by oil prices that held well above $100 a barrel. The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield was at 6.7118% as of 10 a.m. IST, after ending the ‌previous session ⁠at 6.7059%. ⁠Bond yields move inversely to prices. Indian states plan to raise 584.20 trillion rupees ($6.33 trillion) through the sale of debt on Tuesday. The amount not only exceeds the indicative calendar by 145 billion rupees, but is also the highest since March 2025.

"There is some caution, but we expect pension funds and provident funds to bid strongly for this auction as the quantum in ⁠next week's ‌state debt sale could be lower," a trader with a state-run bank said. Meanwhile, Brent crude held near $103 per barrel on ⁠supply concerns, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut and U.S. allies refusing to send warships to help tankers navigate the vital waterway that handles about 20% of global oil flows.

The contract has surged more than 40% since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began. Higher oil prices threaten to raise inflation in India, the world's third-largest crude importer. Traders are also watching the Reserve Bank of India's moves after ‌the central bank announced a seven-day variable rate repo auction for Tuesday.


The RBI bought bonds worth 1 trillion rupees via open market operations and 572 billion ⁠rupees through the secondary market since the Mideast war started, largely to cushion the impact on liquidity from intervention in FX market as the rupee has been close to record lows.

RATES

India's overnight index swap (OIS) rates were largely unchanged, as traders await more cues on oil as well as interest rates. The one-year OIS was not yet traded, while the two-year OIS rate was at 6.07%. The five-year swap rate was at 6.43%.

($1 = 92.3110 Indian rupees)