India bonds log worst week in FY27 on RBI surprise U-turns
Indian government bonds encountered significant challenges this week, marking the worst week of the financial year. The Reserve Bank of India's hawkish policy minutes triggered a selloff, compounded by the early closure of a diaspora-deposit hedgi...
By Reuters |
ETMarkets.com
Indian government bonds logged their worst week of the financial year on Friday, struck by a double blow from the Reserve Bank of India's surprisingly hawkish policy minutes and the early closure of a diaspora-deposit hedging facility.
The selloff in bonds was amplified by a spike in crude prices that intensified inflation and rate hike fears for the world's third-largest oil importer.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 6% for a second consecutive week to $93.4 a barrel after a 60-day U.S.-Iran interim deal expired without signs of renewal.
Iran said on Friday that any response to fresh U.S. threats would be "devastating" after Washington pledged the toughest financial penalties in history.
Inflation and fiscal strains also drove a global debt selloff, pushing long-dated yields to multi-decade highs.
The Indian benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield settled at 6.8495% on Friday, a two-month high. It climbed 9.5 basis points during the week, its sharpest weekly rise since the week ended April 3.
Earlier this week, the RBI unexpectedly said it would shut its discounted diaspora-deposit hedging facility a month ahead of schedule, souring sentiment as the scheme had bolstered liquidity and bond demand.
The five-year note, a key beneficiary of the facility, bore the brunt of the selling. Its yield rose 13 bps for the week, the sharpest jump since early May.
Sentiment deteriorated further after minutes of the RBI's August meeting struck a notably more hawkish tone than the policy statement, traders said. The minutes signalled that the central bank has reached the end of its easing cycle, with the next move higher rather than lower, MUFG Bank said in a note.
"We continue to expect RBI to hike rates by 50 bps starting in the December meeting."
The minutes prompted a swift repricing of rate hike expectations, most visibly in overnight indexed swaps.
RATES
The one-year rate rose 17 bps to 5.9025% this week, while the two-year rate jumped 20 bps to 6.1250%. The liquid five-year rate surged 17 bps to 6.42%.
The selloff in bonds was amplified by a spike in crude prices that intensified inflation and rate hike fears for the world's third-largest oil importer.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 6% for a second consecutive week to $93.4 a barrel after a 60-day U.S.-Iran interim deal expired without signs of renewal.
Iran said on Friday that any response to fresh U.S. threats would be "devastating" after Washington pledged the toughest financial penalties in history.
Inflation and fiscal strains also drove a global debt selloff, pushing long-dated yields to multi-decade highs.
The Indian benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield settled at 6.8495% on Friday, a two-month high. It climbed 9.5 basis points during the week, its sharpest weekly rise since the week ended April 3.
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Earlier this week, the RBI unexpectedly said it would shut its discounted diaspora-deposit hedging facility a month ahead of schedule, souring sentiment as the scheme had bolstered liquidity and bond demand.
The five-year note, a key beneficiary of the facility, bore the brunt of the selling. Its yield rose 13 bps for the week, the sharpest jump since early May.
Sentiment deteriorated further after minutes of the RBI's August meeting struck a notably more hawkish tone than the policy statement, traders said. The minutes signalled that the central bank has reached the end of its easing cycle, with the next move higher rather than lower, MUFG Bank said in a note.
"We continue to expect RBI to hike rates by 50 bps starting in the December meeting."
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The minutes prompted a swift repricing of rate hike expectations, most visibly in overnight indexed swaps.
RATES
ADVERTISEMENT
The one-year rate rose 17 bps to 5.9025% this week, while the two-year rate jumped 20 bps to 6.1250%. The liquid five-year rate surged 17 bps to 6.42%.
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