ETMarkets Smart Talk | Easy bond rally is over: Vinit Bolinjkar on where fixed income goes from here

The easy money in India’s bond market may already have been made. After a rally driven by expectations of monetary easing, falling inflation and improved liquidity, the 10-year government bond yield has moved back above 7%, forcing investors to rethink where the next leg of fixed-income returns could come from.

For Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura, the opportunity is shifting from capital appreciation to carry—locking in elevated yields, generating steady accrual income and selectively positioning for duration gains if inflation starts to moderate.

But the road ahead is unlikely to be straightforward. A renewed US Fed tightening cycle, higher global yields, elevated crude prices, inflation risks and a weaker rupee could all keep pressure on Indian bonds.


That makes the question for investors less about whether yields will collapse and more about whether current yields adequately compensate them for the risks they are taking.

In this segment of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we speak with Vinit Bolinjkar about whether 7%+ government bond yields offer an attractive entry point, how investors should approach G-Secs, high-quality corporate bonds, target maturity funds and short-duration funds, and why staggered deployment may make more sense than trying to time the market. Edited Excerpts -

Q) With the US Fed back in a rate-hiking cycle and the Indian 10-year yield around 7%, how should investors rethink the fixed-income opportunity in India right now?

A) The Indian bond market has moved from a capital appreciation-led opportunity to a carry-led opportunity. The first phase of the bond rally, driven by expectations of monetary easing and falling short-term rates, has largely played out. At current levels, the investment case is shifting towards locking in elevated yields, generating stable accrual income and selectively positioning for duration gains if inflation moderates.

The global backdrop has become less supportive. The US Federal Reserve has restarted its tightening cycle, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% while highlighting that inflation remains elevated and additional tightening may be required. Higher US rates typically put upward pressure on global bond yields and reduce the relative attractiveness of emerging-market fixed income.

In India, the benchmark 10-year government bond yield has moved above the 7% mark, reflecting a combination of global yield pressure, higher crude prices, concerns around inflation and liquidity management.

For investors, the opportunity is therefore less about chasing short-term price gains and more about:

• Capturing 7%+ sovereign yields with high credit quality
• Extending duration selectively if inflation expectations stabilize
• Using high-quality corporate bonds to earn incremental spread over government securities
• Avoiding excessive duration risk until global yields stabilize

The key question for the next 12–18 months is not whether yields can fall sharply, but whether investors are being adequately compensated for locking in today's risk-free rates.

Q) RBI has already delivered significant rate cuts, while inflation is moving higher. Is the easy part of the bond rally behind us, or can yields still move lower?

A) The easy part of the bond rally is likely behind us. The initial decline in yields was supported by expectations of monetary easing, lower inflation and improved liquidity conditions. Going forward, further bond market gains require confirmation that inflation is sustainably moving lower.

The current environment is more balanced:

Positive factors for bonds

• India’s inflation trajectory remains structurally better compared with previous cycles.
• Domestic growth remains supportive, allowing RBI flexibility if inflation moderates.
• Foreign investor participation in Indian government bonds could improve following inclusion in global bond indices.

Risks limiting further yield declines

• Higher global yields due to Fed tightening.
• Crude oil volatility impacting India's inflation and current account.
• Fiscal borrowing requirements create supply pressure.

Recent market moves highlight these concerns. Rising crude prices and global bond market weakness pushed the Indian 10-year yield above 7%, with investors reassessing the pace of further easing.

From a valuation perspective, the bond market appears closer to a fair-value zone rather than the beginning of a large duration rally. A move towards materially lower yields would require either:

1. A meaningful decline in inflation,
2. A global shift towards monetary easing, or
3. Stronger-than-expected foreign demand for Indian government bonds.

Q) For retail investors investing in Indian bonds today, how should they choose between G-Secs, high-quality corporate bonds, target maturity funds and short-duration funds?

A) The right allocation depends on investment objective, duration preference and risk appetite.

For a long-term investor, a barbell approach appears suitable:

• Core allocation: Government securities / target maturity funds for sovereign exposure.
• Incremental allocation: AAA-rated corporate bonds for additional yield pickup.
• Tactical allocation: Longer-duration instruments only when yields move materially higher.

Investors should avoid compromising credit quality merely to capture incremental yield. In a higher-rate environment, the priority should remain capital preservation + predictable income generation.

Q) For an investor entering the bond market today, does a 7%+ yield on government securities offer an attractive entry point, or is there a risk of yields moving higher?

A) A 7%+ yield on sovereign bonds represents a meaningful reset compared with the low-yield environment of previous years; however, investors should enter with a realistic expectation that returns may come primarily from carry rather than immediate capital appreciation.

The attractiveness depends on investment horizon:

For investors with a 3–5-year horizon:

• Locking-in sovereign yields near current levels provide attractive certainty.
• Any future decline in inflation or global yields can provide additional capital gains.

For short-term investors:

The risk-reward is more balanced because yields can move higher if:

• US Treasury yields continue rising,
• crude prices remain elevated,
• inflation expectations increase,
• RBI maintains tighter liquidity conditions.

Recent market commentary has highlighted that Indian bond yields could face upward pressure from crude, inflation concerns and global borrowing costs.

Therefore, investors should consider staggered deployment rather than investing the entire allocation at one point. A phased approach allows investors to benefit if yields temporarily move higher.

Q) For Indian bond investors, what is the bigger risk today: rising inflation, higher US yields, or a weaker rupee?

A) The risks are interconnected, but the biggest near-term risk is a combination of higher global yields and inflation pressure through crude oil.

1. Rising Inflation — Domestic Risk

Inflation remains the most important variable for RBI policy. Any sustained increase in food prices, commodity prices or crude oil can delay further monetary easing and push bond yields higher.

2. Higher US Yields — Global Risk

US yields remain a key driver of emerging-market bond flows. The Fed's latest decision to raise rates and maintain a restrictive stance reflects concerns that inflation remains above target.

Higher US yields can:

• Increase the global risk-free rate,
• Reduce foreign allocation towards emerging-market debt,
• Put pressure on Indian bond yields.

3. Weaker Rupee — Transmission Risk

A weaker rupee increases imported inflation through higher costs of crude oil and other commodities. Recent rupee weakness was driven by higher oil prices and expectations of tighter US monetary policy, contributing to pressure on Indian bond yields.

Overall Assessment

For Indian fixed-income investors, the risk hierarchy currently appears:

1. Global yield shock from higher US rates
2. Crude-led inflation pressure
3. Rupee depreciation

However, India's stronger macro fundamentals, improving external balances and inclusion in global bond benchmarks provide structural support to the domestic bond market. The current environment favors a selective fixed-income strategy focused on duration discipline, high credit quality and staggered investment rather than aggressive duration positioning.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)