Psychology says people who think others are lying to them may be wrong more times than they realise

Trust can be hard to come by these days. With stories about scams, fraud and deception regularly making headlines, many people have grown used to questioning the motives of those around them. Whether it is a stranger online, a colleague at work or even someone in everyday life, there is often a feeling that people are more likely to bend the truth than admit it. But new psychology research suggests that this suspicion may be stronger than reality warrants.

A study published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology found that people consistently overestimate how dishonest others are. Researchers discovered that while some people do cheat when given the opportunity, most are far more honest than many assume.

People may be judging others too harshly

The findings are based on data from 11 experiments involving more than 8,000 responses. Participants were placed in situations where they could anonymously lie for a small financial reward without facing punishment. They were also asked to estimate how many other people would choose to behave dishonestly in the same situation.


The results revealed a significant gap between perception and reality. On average, participants overestimated dishonest behaviour by 13.6 percentage points. Nearly two-thirds believed others would cheat more often than they actually did.

Researchers found that around 70% of participants behaved honestly, even when dishonesty could have benefited them.

“People on average overestimated what percentage others behave dishonestly by about 14 percentage points, which is a substantial effect,” said study author Jareef Martuza, assistant professor of strategy and management at the Norwegian School of Economics.

The researchers said the pattern remained remarkably consistent across different experiments and participant groups, suggesting that people tend to hold a generally pessimistic view of others' honesty.

Why these beliefs matter

According to the researchers, assumptions about human behaviour can influence decisions in ways people may not realise. If someone believes dishonesty is widespread, they may become more cynical, less trusting and more supportive of strict rules designed to prevent misconduct.

The team found evidence of this among professional managers. Those who believed people were more likely to cheat were also more likely to support surveillance measures and stricter workplace monitoring.

Researchers then tested whether these views could be changed. When participants were informed that most people had behaved honestly in the experiments, they reported more positive views of others and higher levels of trust. Managers who received the same information also became less supportive of restrictive monitoring measures.

“In our paper, we present preliminary evidence that the more people overestimate, the more people endorse surveillance measures, and correcting misperceptions seems to reduce surveillance preference,” Martuza said.

A reason to rethink assumptions

The study does not suggest that people are perfectly honest. In fact, researchers noted that around 30% of participants did choose to cheat when given the opportunity. However, the key finding is that most people believed the number was much higher.

The researchers believe negative experiences may play a role. Incidents involving dishonesty often attract attention and stay in people's memories, while ordinary examples of honest behaviour tend to go unnoticed.

“We tend to overestimate how dishonest others are,” Martuza concluded. “Of course, the potential downside to trusting strangers can be significant. But most people do not seem to cheat even when their decisions are anonymous, there is no punishment, and there are no reputational consequences. So, we might want to reflect a bit on whether our pessimism about other people’s morality might be justified.”