On Valentine’s Day, stock-market bear took the bull by the horns

'Tis the time of year when the raging bull of the stock market takes a beating from a soft, cuddly bear. The furry thing, most often gifted as love’s faithful emissary, has the numbers to show that it is the clear winner in the amour takes-all, including stocks, game.'

The figures show how the bear took the bull by the horns. In the fortnight leading up to Valentine’s Day, the benchmark Sensex failed to earn a return in seven out of 10 years, right up to February 2018. In the fortnight following February 14, the index return was either close to zero or negative on seven out of 10 instances till February 2017.

Bear necessities
Market experts would explain away the notion that Valentine’s Day has much to do with the trend. Instead, the jittery performance of the index can be attributed to the fact that February is the month when the central government declares the Union Budget for the coming fiscal. The equity indices tend to reflect investors sentiments concerning expectations from the budget, apart from other domestic as well as international economic and political factors.


For instance, the current fortnight leading to this year’s Valentine’s Day reported the second sharpest fall at 4.8 per cent, following the finance minister’s decision to bring back the long-term capital gains tax and signs of mounting inflationary pressure as bond yields gradually crawl up.

Bull fights back

As for the most- tracked indices in international equity markets, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500, both based in the US, tend to not follow suit.

DJIA, for instance, reported a drop on two occasions and under 1 per cent gain on two other times during the fortnight leading to Valentine’s Day, allowing the bull to buck the trend.