'It looks like World War III': Historian Sarah Paine gives chilling warning on global conflict; explains why nuclear weapons may not keep the world safe

Wars have been breaking out in different parts of the world, tensions between major powers are rising, and the possibility of another global conflict is becoming more and more difficult to ignore. Even though the possibility of another world war may sound like a distant fear to some, but historian and geopolitical strategist Dr Sarah Paine believes the world is moving in a dangerous direction. From the war involving Iran to Russia’s actions near NATO territory, she sees several conflicts that could become much harder to contain once they escalate.

Speaking to Steven Bartlett on The Diary of a CEO podcast, Paine warned that the world was “potentially barreling our way into a world war”. She said the problem was not just the number of conflicts taking place, but the people making decisions in powerful countries.

“We have reckless people running some very large and important countries around the world,” she said. “And as you’ve noticed, once wars start, easy to do that part, really hard to end them.”


When Bartlett asked what the future might look like if the world continued on its current path, Paine replied, “It looks like World War III”.

Why Paine believes the Iran war is a serious warning

Paine was particularly critical of the US-led war involving Iran, describing it as “probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history”.

She argued that the conflict had come at a heavy cost to the United States, damaging its economy and alliances while also affecting the wider global economy. In her view, the decision-makers failed to properly consider how Iran could respond, including the possibility of disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

She also warned that leaders can become trapped once a war begins. Explaining why conflicts are difficult to stop, she pointed to the political pressure on those involved.

“You’ve got to prevent these things from breaking out because once they break out, look at Iran,” she said. “Is Donald Trump going to want to back down? No, he’s going to want to show that somehow he’s won.”

On the risk of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, Paine questioned Trump's justification for the war and argued that his actions could have the opposite effect. She said: "It’s much more likely now that they will get nuclear weapons doing what he’s incentivized them to get nuclear weapons. Here’s my thing about Donald Trump. Is he known for providing accurate information? You know the answer to that question."

Russia, NATO and Nuclear Weapons

Paine also raised concerns about Russia's actions around NATO countries. During the interview, she referred to reported drone and airspace incidents involving Bulgaria and Romania, warning that such developments could eventually bring the alliance's collective-defence clause into play.

“At some point you’re into Article 5 territory,” she said. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty requires NATO members to treat an armed attack against one member as an attack against them all.

When Bartlett asked whether a Russian invasion of Poland could trigger World War III, Paine agreed that it could. She also questioned whether nuclear weapons were enough to prevent such a conflict.

When asked if the threat of mutually assured destruction kept the world safe, she replied: “No.”

Paine also contrasted today's leadership with the generation that had lived through World War II. She said that generation had been careful not to trigger another global conflict, adding: “And that’s not true of who we’ve got now.”

Who is Dr Sarah Paine?

Sarah C. M. Paine is a historian and geopolitical strategist who has taught strategy at the US Naval War College since 2000. She is the William S. Sims University Professor Emerita of History and Grand Strategy.

Her work focuses on geopolitics, military history and the relationships between China, Russia and Japan. She has also lectured on Mao, the Cold War, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and other major conflicts.

Paine's research draws on years spent overseas, including time in Taiwan, Japan, China, Russia, Australia and Britain. Her books include The Wars for Asia, 1911–1949, The Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895 and Imperial Rivals: China, Russia, and Their Disputed Frontier, 1858–1924.

In the podcast conversation, she returned repeatedly to the importance of preventing wars rather than trying to manage them after they already begin.