Eco Survey: Big Data, Shakespeare find space in Arvind Subramanian's Preface

On a not-so-nippy Tuesday noon, political heavyweights, lightweights and wannabes - across the spectrum of saffron, green and red - managed to take time off from the poll-pourri, and show up for Parliament. It was after all, the day of the Economic Survey.

While Finance Minister Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey in Parliament, it was his key man, Arvind Subramanian, who stole the show. The Chief Economic Advisor, in a dapper- looking pink sleeveless jacket that sat well with the white shirt and trousers, breezed through his 45-minute presentation, invoking his own boss (Mr. Jaitley) and the Big B.

In a post-Truth universe, this year's Preface to the Economic Survey has a refreshing cheer about it. The officialese has been relegated to the periphery, making way for a tenor that is peppy. The opening paragraph begins with a not-subtle-at-all reference to Amazon which rode piggyback on last year's Economic Survey, selling it commercially that also helped in "achieving wide circulation for the Survey".

For the Oxford-educated Subramanian, this year's Preface is about the 'Home and the World', and some William Shakespeare. That's why a " Brexit and political changes in advanced economies" rub shoulders with the "GST and demonetisation" which have been touted as this Government's biggest strengths and weakness, depending on perspective. And he unequivocally states that the "Survey needs to do full justice to all these short-term developments, or else it risks being Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark".


Lost in thought: Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) and Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia after laying of Economic Survey 2016-17. (Image: PTI)

And the Bard finds some company in Big Data that has remained a key focus of this Government's digital inclusion initiative. More than two paragraphs have been devoted to the efforts that have gone into it and the consequent results that it has produced. "With some immodesty, we claim that this Survey produces the first estimate of the flow of goods across states within India, based on analyzing transactions level data provided by the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN). We also claim that this Survey furnishes exciting new evidence on the flows of migrants within India, based on detailed origin-destination passenger data provided by the Ministry of Railways and on a new methodology for analyzing the Census data".

In last year's Survey, the Preface was conspicuous by its absence. However, in that of 2014, a newly-appointed CEA had written, "All Economic Surveys bear the imprint of the incumbent Chief Economic Adviser. And so it is with this one. But the desire for change must be balanced by the imperative of maintaining continuity, in order to be respectful of, and gain from, traditions that have survived the tests of time, whim, fashion, and politics".

In the same Survey, he had coined the term JAM Trinity - Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar and Mobile, which, collectively, has gone on to define much of the Government's policies and efforts of sustainable solutions for the poor.

The 2014 Survey was devoted to "What to Make in India? Manufacturing or Services? and Skilling India". The Preface this year, extremely well-written and lucid, comes at a tumultuous hour, having compartmentalised the state of affairs into three legs. Therefore, there is "The Perspective, The Proximate, and The Persistent", with each analysing disparate issues.

At a time when the Universal Basic Income has been much discussed, it is not surprising that it finds a mention in the Preface itself, along with the Mahatma. "The Survey produces new estimates of the effectiveness of targeting of major current programs, contrasting the wedge between the number of poor in a district and the amount of funding it receives. This leads naturally to a discussion of providing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) that has emerged as a raging new idea both in advanced economies and in India. We discuss this idea as a conversation that the Mahatma might have had with himself, concluding that it merits serious public deliberation".

And staying with tradition, the Chief Economic Advisor signs off with, who else, but John Keynes, who still remains the go-to person for most economists. And in his own inimitable style, Mr. Subramanian compares Keynes's "master-economist" model for the "master-Survey". "It must possess a rare combination of gifts … it must draw upon mathematics, history, statesmanship, and philosophy -in some degree. It must understand symbols and speak in words … It must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous mood, its authors as aloof and incorruptible as artists, yet sometimes as near to earth as politicians".

And even by his own admission, while these may be "lofty standards", they remain the aspiration for a better India.

And in just about a few hours from now, one will get to see if the Preface (Economic Survey) can outdo the magnum opus (that his Boss plans to unveil).