Dark side of robot revolution: Here's why the world should prepare for the worst

This has been hailed as the year of Artificial Intelligence (AI). In January, Mark Zuckerberg declared he would build himself a virtual assistant. In May, Google announced a series of AI-powered assistants while Apple is expected to unveil its AI-driven agenda at the company’s annual conference this week. The proliferation of AI technology has also sparked a vigorous and, often, anxious debate about its role in the society of the future. Last week, RBI governor Raghuram Rajan told an audience at a Mumbai book launch that 30-odd years from now, people would lose jobs not to outsourcing but to high-functioning robots.

American author Martin Ford has spent some time considering the effects of rapid technological advancements on the human workforce. In his 2015 bestseller, The Rise Of The Robots, he predicted a near future where low-skilled, highly-skilled and even creative jobs will be performed by machines or intelligent algorithms. Speaking via telephone from Sunnyvale in California, Ford discussed the looming threat of machines taking over for human labour and dealing with its disruptive consequences. Excerpts from the conversation:


Image: Martin Ford (Twitter)

Your book states that while automation and the widespread use of robots will hit industrialised countries the hardest, developing economies won’t be immune to them. No, they won’t. It’s true that in the past, most of the manufacturing or labour jobs in the West were lost to China or other developing countries. But increased automation has the potential to eliminate the need for human labour entirely. In my book, I talk about how Foxconn (the primary contract manufacturer for Apple devices, which has many plants in China) has plans to introduce up to a million robots in its factories. So this time, the global economy will feel the impact.

What about the notion that robots cannot emulate human skill or creativity?

A few years ago, the London Symphony Orchestra performed a composition that was created by computers powered by AI algorithms. There is now software that can write news stories and an algorithm that can create art. The highly-skilled white collar workforce will face a transition. It may not happen as quickly as it would in manufacturing though.

What are the jobs that will be least impacted?

Take a radiologist’s job, for example. It is more technically skilled than say, that of a nurse. But the radiologist can be replaced by a robot because the job is of a routine nature. The nurse won’t be easily replaced. Healthcare jobs will be relatively secure. So will any job that combines dexterity, mobility, creativity and human interaction. Maybe plumbers or electricians.

In the book, you propose the idea of governments paying citizens a basic guaranteed income to deal with mass unemployment.

Yes, it will provide those without jobs a crucial safety net. No doubt, there will be groups that misuse this money or squander it. But the vast majority will use it towards things like education or investments. A basic income also frees people up to start their own businesses, spend as consumers and participate in the economy. (Note: This month Switzerland became the first country in the world to hold a referendum on a universal basic income; nearly 77 per cent of the voters rejected it)

Do you think tech founders should feel morally obligated to be more philanthropic in the future?

I don’t think this is a problem that can be solved simply by giving away wealth. Instead, the tech industry should work with governments to come up with political and social solutions.

Which science fiction movie or book comes close to capturing the dystopia of a machine-led future?

I thought Elysium (2013) came close — a tech-savvy elite migrates to another planet while the rest of the world fights starvation on Earth.

Is the world better off without artificial intelligence?

I am an optimist about artificial intelligence in the long-term. I think it has potential to reduce poverty and solve some major medical issues but in the short-term, it will cause trouble. If we can figure out how to adapt to what’s coming, AI could change the way we live.

A Terminator-like uprising?

Not likely for now Scientific luminaries are all for technological innovation but with AI, some famous names have expressed reservations. Last year, Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates made their concerns known in an open letter. In a 2014 op-ed in The Independent, Hawking wrote, “Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. In the near term, world militaries are considering autonomous-weapon systems that can choose and eliminate targets.” Ford appreciates their point of view but he believes that the scenario they are talking about is way, way into the future. “Weaponised AI technology has the potential to result in an arms race, but the idea of robots posing an existential threat to humanity is still in the realm of science fi ction,” he says. The more immediate crisis the world faces, according to Ford, is widespread unemployment, which could lead to social and political upheaval. He says, “In America, Donald Trump’s candidacy is a good example. He has tapped into an anger caused by large-scale loss of jobs, to a great extent because of technology not immigrants. There is also the danger of the world facing a ‘perfect storm’, where economic devastation runs parallel to environmental catastrophes, leading to more complications.”