Global container freight prices surge 130% since February amid Middle East tensions: Jefferies

New Delhi: Global container freight rates have surged 130 per cent since February 2026 amid renewed tensions in West Asia, raising concerns over shipping costs as India's container-based export-import trade continues to grow, according to a report by Jefferies.

The report said global freight rates rebounded after steadily declining from early 2025, when elevated rates in 2024 began easing amid an improving demand-supply balance. The renewed increase in shipping costs has brought freight rates back into focus for businesses involved in international trade.

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Jefferies said the potential impact of shipping lines returning to the Suez Canal, despite continuing tensions in West Asia, remains an important factor to monitor.

The report noted, "Freight rates have risen 130 per cent since Feb-26, due to the impact of Middle-East tensions." It added that "The potential impact of shipping lines' return to the Suez Canal, despite Middle East tensions, is a key monitorable."

The data highlighted in the report showed that global container freight rates rose from around USD 2,000-2,500 in February 2026 to approximately USD 4,000-4,500 in October 2026. This increase comes after rates remained relatively low in early 2026.

The report also mentioned that the increase in freight rates comes as India's containerisable export-import trade recorded strong growth in September 2026.

According to the report, the value of this trade rose 23 per cent year-on-year during the month, supported by a 22 per cent increase in exports and a 23 per cent rise in imports.

Exports to the United States grew 48 per cent year-on-year in September. However, exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia declined by 12-15 per cent year-on-year, according to Jefferies.

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The chart accompanying the report shows that global container freight rates had fallen substantially from their 2021-22 highs before recovering during 2024. Rates subsequently eased through much of 2025 and early 2026 before rising again in recent months.

The rebound in shipping costs comes at a time when international trade flows are expanding. However, the report's figures do not establish that higher freight rates have already slowed India's export-import growth.

Port traffic data also showed differing trends across the country. Volumes at major ports increased 13 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, while non-major port volumes declined 1 per cent.

Among non-major ports, volumes at Gujarat ports rose 3 per cent year-on-year, while Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu ports recorded growth of 6-7 per cent. Major and non-major ports on India's eastern coast, however, saw a sharp decline during the month, the report said.

Jefferies highlighted the potential return of shipping lines to the Suez Canal as a key factor to watch amid continuing Middle East tensions. Changes in shipping routes could affect global freight rates, making developments in the region important for businesses dependent on international cargo movement.