Festive travel squeeze: Domestic airfares jump up to 68% as flight options narrow

Mumbai: Indians flying to their hometowns this festive season or taking a year-end local holiday could face steep airfares, with ticket prices on some major domestic routes already up as much as 68% from a year ago as airlines balance strong travel demand with higher fuel costs and fewer flight options on some routes.

The number of domestic flights scheduled for the October-December quarter are down 5% from a year earlier, while seat capacity is down just 1.2%, according to data from a global aviation analytics firm OAG. Airlines are flying fewer services but putting more seats on each flight, using larger aircraft to keep overall capacity broadly stable. At the same time, jet fuel prices have risen sharply, adding to airline costs.

Average one-way fares between September 1 and November 10 have risen 68% on the Delhi-Hyderabad, 51% on Mumbai-Kolkata, 39% on Delhi-Goa and 37% on Mumbai-Bengaluru routes, as per data reviewed by ET.


The capacity shift does not mean there is a broad shortage of seats. Instead, the impact varies significantly by route, with airlines adding capacity on some sectors while reducing frequencies on others.

Departure Options

"The busiest day for domestic capacity this quarter is expected to be December 7, with 589,386 seats scheduled, below the 603,634 seats on last year's busiest day," said John Grant, chief analyst at OAG.

OAG's data show the divergence across markets. Mumbai-Jamnagar capacity has more than tripled to 102,520 seats from 32,452 a year earlier, while Delhi-Navi Mumbai capacity has risen to 142,600 from 8,158 as the new airport ramps up operations. Ahmedabad-Kolkata capacity, however, is down 20.9% and Hyderabad-Jaipur by 33.1%.

That matters for passengers as fewer flights can mean fewer departure options on peak dates even when airlines maintain overall seats through larger aircraft. Where demand is strong and frequencies are limited, fares can rise faster.

Fuel is adding to the pressure. Domestic ATF prices rose ₹16 a litre from October 1 to about ₹137 a litre from ₹121, following increases of ₹6.28 a litre in September and ₹5 a litre in August. Fuel accounts for 30-40% of airline operating expenses, according to ICRA.

Domestic ATF prices were already about 20% higher year-on-year in August after oil marketing companies raised prices by Rs 5,000 a kilolitre, ICRA said. Airlines also have significant dollar-denominated costs, including aircraft leases and maintenance, leaving them exposed to movements in both fuel prices and the rupee.

"While traditional domestic favourites such as Goa continue to see healthy demand, with bookings up 10% year-on-year, destinations such as Leh, Dehradun and Amritsar are also seeing strong growth this festive season," said Aloke Bajpai, co-founder and group co-CEO of ixigo. "Higher ATF prices could put upward pressure on domestic airfares, particularly around peak-festive travel dates, while easier visa access and improving connectivity are giving international travel an added push."

Yatra said domestic fares are 30-40% higher than last year while international fares are 30-50% higher. Domestic bookings and searches have remained broadly steady, with strong demand on Delhi-Mumbai, Delhi-Bengaluru, Mumbai-Delhi and Mumbai-Bengaluru, as well as routes connecting major metros with Patna and Kochi.

Yatra expects fares on high demand routes to rise another 15-20% as departure dates approach, particularly where capacity remains constrained.

International schedules are expanding slightly faster, with flights up 3% and seats 2% year-on-year for October-December quarter, according to OAG. Planned capacity to Saudi Arabia is up 22%, while Thailand is down 8%. Capacity to Canada has risen 27%, while planned capacity to China has quadrupled.

Demand is also shifting toward overseas leisure destinations. Ixigo's bookings to Hanoi have more than doubled year-on-year while Bali bookings are up 89%, followed by Colombo (76%) and Bangkok (74%). Abu Dhabi bookings have risen 38% and Singapore 12%.

Yatra said international searches and bookings have softened although Southeast Asia and West Asia continue to see strong demand.