Airtel inches closer to Jio in revenue market share in Q2, Vi's hits record low

Kolkata: Bharti Airtel is rapidly closing the gap in revenue market share (RMS) with market leader Reliance Jio, on the back of strong execution and revenue gains in both urban and rural markets, latest telco financial data collated by the telecom regulator showed.

As per latest data issued by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai), Airtel has gained 180 basis points (bps) on-year in the fiscal second quarter, boosting its RMS to 39.1% compared to Jio’s 18 bps on-year rise to 42.2%.

As a result, the RMS gap between Jio and Airtel has shrunk to just over 300 bps in Q2FY25 from 480 bps a year ago. In Q2FY24, Airtel and Jio’s RMS levels were at 37.3% and 42.1% respectively.

“Airtel is consistently narrowing its (revenue) market share gap versus RJio. The data shows Jio is losing ground in Delhi (down 286bps QoQ), Mumbai (down 369bps QoQ), Tamil Nadu (down 144bps QoQ), Punjab (down 123bps QoQ), Haryana (down 175bps QoQ), Northeast (down 130bps QoQ), and J&K (down 430 bps QoQ),” ICICI Securities said in a research note, analysing the Trai data.

The RMS is a key telco performance metric that measures overall telecom market leadership. A basis point is 0.01%.

To be sure, analysts said Airtel had reported stronger RMS gains versus Jio as the latter’s tariff hike benefits come with a slight lag compared with peers due to a higher mix of long validity recharge subscribers.

Accordingly, Jio is slated to reap the major gains of the industry-wide headline rate hikes of July in the third and fourth quarters of the current fiscal.

As per Trai data, Bharti Airtel has gained revenue share in 21/22 circles in Q2, with a bulk of its market share gains coming from Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Tamil Nadu and Bihar.

Global brokerage Jefferies said Airtel had gained market share from both Vi and Jio in C-circles (read: rural markets), suggesting traction on its rural expansion strategy. “Airtel has maintained RMS leadership in the metros and A-circles too, reflecting its strength in urban-centric markets as well.”

Trai data showed loss-making Vodafone Idea’s RMS plunged 169 basis points on-year to a record low of 14.6% in Q2FY25 as the telco’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) declined across its leadership/established circles, ICICI Securities said.

Analysts, in fact, expect India’s top two telcos to continue scoring RMS gains at Vi’s expense till the latter completes its pending network investments. Vi’s AGR market share (or RMS) has dipped to a low 14.6% in Q2FY25, pending acceleration in data network roll out, they added.

Analysts, though, expect Vi to be a big beneficiary of the recent bank guarantee (BG) waiver cleared by the Cabinet, a move they expect will hasten its planned debt raise.

As per telco financial data collated by Trai, Airtel and Jio reported 10.2% and 6.7% sequential rises in AGR (including NLD revenue) to Rs 25,900 crore and Rs 28,000 crore respectively in the fiscal second quarter, while Vi’s rose 5.4% to Rs 9,700 crore.

Overall industry AGR (including NLD revenue) rose 8% sequentially to Rs 66,300 crore in the quarter ended September, on the back of the July tariff hikes. The combined AGR of the top three operators, in turn, rose 7.9% QoQ to Rs 63,600 crore.