NCR housing market shows early signs of slowdown amid weak demand

New Delhi: Some real estate developers in the national capital region (NCR) have started delaying new launches, offering incentives to buyers and even exiting projects, in what could be early signs of weakening demand and rising cash flow pressures.

Experts said several projects launched 12–18 months ago are now at a critical stage of construction, but some buyers have stopped paying instalments amid stagnating prices, while listed and well-established developers are largely insulated and expected to weather the slowdown.

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An executive of a brokerage firm said, “2022 and 2023 saw good price appreciation and, till 2024, investors were able to exit projects in the middle stages of construction with good returns. However, around the festive season in 2025, the market started showing signs of distress, with prices reaching a peak.”

Most of the projects launched in 2025 are now reaching a stage where they would require buyers to pay, the executive said, adding that some buyers, however, are pulling back and requesting cancellations, anticipating price stagnation.

According to data from property consultant Anarock, 404,005 units sold in FY26 pan-India are the lowest since FY23.

In NCR, 59,892 units were sold in FY26, slightly higher than 58,773 in FY25 but much lower than 64,114 in FY24 and 62,037 in FY23.

“However, the bigger worry is supply outpacing demand, which is leading to an increase in the number of unsold inventory units,” said another executive. “Across top cities, 445,405 units were launched while 404,005 were sold. This was the first time in three years that the number of units sold was less than the number of units launched.”

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In Gurgaon, three or four builders who had launched projects last year are in talks with other companies to infuse funds and take over the projects.

“A lot of developers make the mistake of buying land at higher rates when the sector is doing well. However, buyers now look for branded developers with credibility,” said a consultant. “Many are now giving the option of paying 80% of the amount later. We are yet to see a dip in pricing but will see more realistic pricing.”

According to NSE-listed real estate data analytics company PropEquity, housing sales fell by 13% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to 98,761 units, while launches fell by 19% y-oy and 8% q-o-q to 92,411 units in January–March 2026.

Housing sales in India’s top nine cities fell below the 100,000 unit mark after 18 quarters.

“We used to sell 20–30 units a month; that has now dropped to 5–10. Many other builders we speak to are confirming a 50–70% dip in monthly sales. This was, however, expected and most of us have achieved financial closure, which will help in the completion of projects,” said the CEO of a north India-based developer.

According to Crisil Ratings, the residential real estate industry appears to have entered a phase of calibrated growth after a strong post-pandemic surge that saw it clock a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% in sales from FY22 to FY25.

In FY26, sales growth is estimated to have dipped to 5–7% as demand remained stagnant due to elevated capital values, as well as delayed launches caused by approval-related challenges in certain cities.

In FY27, with growth flattening for both average selling prices and demand, sales growth is expected to be slightly lower at 4–6%.

Growth in average selling prices is expected to dip to 3–5% in FY27 following a period of high growth—a CAGR of 11% from FY22 to fiscal FY25 and a steady 7–9% increase estimated for FY26—which has established a high base.

“The sustained increase in housing prices is expected to lead to flattish demand growth of 0–2% in fiscal 2027,” said Gautam Shahi, director, Crisil Ratings. “However, with supply continuing to exceed demand, inventory levels are expected to inch up to 3.2–3.4 years in fiscal 2027, up from less than 3 years in the two prior fiscals.”