India set to meet 2030 green goals, but UN issues a global warning

New Delhi: India's aggressive renewable energy programme has helped the country break its emissions growth trend even as the world is set to miss its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an United Nations report said on Wednesday.

India is one of only six G20 countries that are likely to achieve their 2030 climate commitments, or nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with existing policies, according to the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, an annual assessment of progress in reducing emissions.

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However, the world, as a whole, needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 6% a year to minimise the extent and duration when the average global temperature rise exceeds the 1.5°C threshold, the report said.

If countries continue with their current policies, global warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter, it warned. Even if every country delivered on their NDCs, the temperature increase would be about 2.6°C. "The emissions gap is now a leadership gap," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, urging countries to take immediate action to cut emissions.

"Overshoot is not surrender," Guterres said. "We can still keep it as small and as short as possible - and bring temperatures back below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The 2026 Emissions Gap Report shows us what it will take."

Implementation Gap

While countries' climate commitments have helped bend the emissions curve, they fall far short of what is required. Emissions need to fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, from 2025 levels, the report said.

Current climate commitments would deliver only 5-8% reduction by 2030. The spike in the emissions gap is attributed to the withdrawal of the United States from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Paris Agreement, revised estimates of historical emissions and negligible impact of the NDCs submitted since the 2025 assessment.

The emissions projections for most G20 countries have not changed since last year's assessment, indicating little progress towards closing the 2030 implementation gap at the G20 level.

India is an exception. While India's absolute emissions have increased, the country will meet its 2030 and 2035 targets under current policies, the report said.

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Besides the renewable energy push, the report cited India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, which would initially cover over 700 MtCO2e of emissions, and the Pradhan Mantri Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana that provides subsidies and collateral-free loans for rooftop solar panel installations.

The Emissions Gap Report findings are likely to feature prominently at the COP31 climate talks in Turkiye next month. Discussions are expected to focus on efforts to accelerate emissions cuts and COP30 presidency Brazil's roadmap for transitioning away from fossils.

COP31 president of negotiations Australia has appointed India's environment, forests and climate change minister Bhupender Yadav and Germany's environment, climate action, nature conservation and nuclear safety minister Carsten Schneider to facilitate the discussion for reduction in emissions.