India keeps renewables target flexible, goal of 500 GW green energy by 2030 dropped

India dropped its target of establishing 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, giving itself the flexibility of 50% power from non-fossil fuel sources by then in its commitments to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This keeps India's options open for new coal-based power plants in the projected 820 GW total capacity, if excess demand cannot be met from green fuels, sources told ET.

The Cabinet on Wednesday approved India's updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to be communicated to the UNFCCC. The updated NDC proposes about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030, dropping the 500 GW absolute target committed at COP26. It also did not include the commitment to reduce one billion tonnes of carbon emission by 2030.

'Capacity to Depend on Power Demand'

India had made a commitment to generate 500 GW of power from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 and reduce carbon emissions by one billion tonnes by the end of the decade at the COP26 conference, held in Glasgow in November last year.

The NDCs are the core of the Paris Agreement on climate change that countries have to communicate and update periodically. The updated NDC commits to reducing the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 from the 2005 level, not mentioning the one billion tonne carbon emission reduction.

An official statement issued after the cabinet meeting reiterated India's long-term goal of reaching net zero by 2070.

"The updated NDC has a flexible approach towards renewable energy generation that in reality depends upon power demand," a senior government official told ET. "If the demand for power is high, the generation should be high, rather than setting rigid targets."

It is, however, clear that 50% of the country's installed generation capacity will be based on non-fossil fuel sources, including large hydro, he said.

Another official said the updated goals keep the window open for new thermal power plants.

"As long as we keep the fossil below 50%, we can raise the TPP (thermal power plant) capacity," he said. "In case demand is higher, renewable energy can grow rapidly by 2030, accommodating more thermal capacity."

Power and renewable energy minister RK Singh recently said the country's installed capacity is expected to be 820 GW in 2030. In an interview with ET in May, he said India is a big country and demand has only started growing now.

"The industrialised countries have been using fossil fuel for their growth for the past many decades. Our first requirement is to make sure there is enough power available for growth. There is not going to be any compromise on that," he said on being asked about halting new coal plants.

India's current installed power capacity is 404 GW, consisting of coal-based 204 GW (50%), renewable energy sources 114 GW (28%), and hydro 47 GW (12%). Nuclear power generation capacity is 7 GW, gas-based power 24 GW, and lignite and diesel-based 8 GW.

The Central Electricity Authority has forecast that the country's reliance on coal will drop from 53% in 2021 to 33% in 2030, whereas solar and wind together will make up 51% from 23% in 2021. Coal contributes about 67% of the energy generation. However, no new coal-based plants have been set up in the past decade. NTPC Ltd recently announced it would be setting up its first coal-fired plant in many years.