Oscars 2013 race: Why Argo will trump Lincoln

By: Phil Contrino


What if I told you that everything you think you know about the Oscar race is wrong? Well, it probably is. Every year people are surprised by how the Oscars turn out. They gasp when their favourite films are snubbed and they puzzle over why other films made the cut. After confusion come anger and disillusionment.

“How could the Academy be so stupid?” is the common complaint. Surprises are a big part of any contest, and the Oscars are no exception. Even the savviest pundits — of which there are few — get plenty of things wrong. But the wisest pundits understand certain rules that reduce the amount of bewilderment when nominees and then winners are announced. They also take emotion out of it.

The Lip and the Cup

The first thing to remember is there’s a big disconnect between what everyone thinks will be an Oscar contender and what actually becomes an Oscar contender. Plenty of films have Oscar potential on paper because of their subject matter, or their cast, or a number of other factors.

Yet the difference between having potential and actually winning awards is huge. Heading into the Oscar season, many people had Lincoln pegged as the film to beat for Best Picture. How could a movie based on a celebrated historical figure directed by a legendary director and starring an actor with two Oscars to his name possibly be topped?


Well, as the February 24 award ceremony approaches, Argo is the heavy favourite to win Best Picture. Not Lincoln. Don’t cry for Honest Abe just yet.

Lincoln is still the heavy favourite in three other important races: Best Director (Steven Spielberg), Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) and Best Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones). There’s no chance that it will walk away empty handed. So how did we get here?

First, it’s important to remember what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences actually is. The Academy is not some mysterious organisation made up of a few select individuals. It’s made up of nearly 6,000 professionals working in the movie industry.

Actors make up the biggest branch of the Academy with 1,172 members. Therefore, if you can please actors then you probably have a good shot at Oscar gold.

Watch the Guild

That’s why so much fuss was made over Argo winning the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for Best Ensemble Cast. That win sent a clear message that the biggest voting block in the Academy is behind Argo in a big way.

Argo also won two other major guild awards: the Producers Guild’s Darryl F Zanuck Producer of the Year Award and Best Motion Picture Director from the Directors Guild. Combine those wins with the SAG win and you have a film with plenty of support from the very people it needs support from.

By the time the guilds start voting for their awards, the views of critics, pundits, casual movie watchers and anybody else who chimes in on the Oscars take a back seat.

The Guilds basically rewrite the race every year. With their votes they send out a message to the rest of the world that says, “We know what you like, but this is what we like. We are the ones who pick the Oscars, not you.”

Guild awards are in a way more important than the Golden Globes, because they indicate how the Academy is actually going to vote. It’s a common misconception that the Golden Globes are a strong indicator of how the Oscar race will turn out.