Monsoon tests India's steelmakers as prices head in opposite directions: Report

New Delhi: Domestic steel prices are expected to remain mixed in the coming months, with long steel prices likely to stay under pressure due to weak demand during the monsoon season and high inventory levels, according to a Centrum report.

The report said global and domestic steel prices showed mixed trends. US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices rose around 3 per cent month-on-month, marking the eighth straight month of gains. In contrast, European HRC prices declined about 4 per cent for the second consecutive month, while China's export HRC prices fell around 1 per cent after six months of continuous gains.

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In India, domestic HRC prices remained largely stable, supported by safeguard duties on imports and firm global prices. However, "long steel prices witnessed a sharp correction, with primary rebar declining ~9% MoM, giving back part of the strong rally seen since late 2025."

The report attributed the decline to weak construction activity, higher inventories, aggressive trader discounts and increased competition from secondary rebar producers.

Centrum said the weakness continued in July, noting that "spot HRC and primary rebar prices down ~Rs 210/tonne and ~Rs 3,020/tonne, respectively, from June averages."

It also said prices of 304-grade stainless steel fell around 3 per cent month-on-month in June but remained about 19 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Among raw materials, Australian iron ore prices declined around 7 per cent month-on-month. In India, NMDC reduced lump ore prices by Rs 250 per tonne and fine ore prices by Rs 150 per tonne.

The report added that Australian coking coal prices increased about 2 per cent month-on-month and 36 per cent year-on-year due to limited spot supplies, firm supplier pricing and stronger demand from China following disruptions at domestic mines. South African non-coking coal prices remained largely unchanged from the previous month but were still 22 per cent higher than a year ago.

In the non-ferrous metals segment, aluminium was the weakest performer.

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On the outlook, the report said, "Going ahead, the domestic steel pricing environment is likely to remain mixed. Long steel prices are expected to stay under pressure amid monsoon-related demand weakness and elevated inventories, while flat steel prices should remain relatively resilient, supported by lower imports and steady raw material costs."