Domestic steel prices surge 18-25% on extended safeguard duty

Mumbai: An 18-25% surge in domestic steel prices over the past three months underscores extension of a safeguard duty on imports of the commodity.

Prices of hot-rolled coils are currently at Rs 55,900 per tonne, up from Rs 47,317 in the December quarter, while primary rebar prices are trending at Rs 59,800 a tonne, compared to Rs 47,615.

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Prices of the alloy are holding ground despite widespread business disruptions caused by the Iran war, which could lead to additional steel imports flowing into India, weighing on domestic prices.

India’s own steel exports to the Gulf are also likely to be hit, although this could be offset by robust local demand. The UAE accounted for around 8% of India’s total exports of steel between April 2025 to January 2026.

“We maintain our stance that steel is India’s story, and global factors, especially China, should have a limited impact on the earnings potential of major steel players,” said Jashandeep Singh Chadha, analyst at Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India). “Our bullish stance on the India steel sector is underpinned by improving domestic price momentum despite global headwinds.”

Shares of steel majors JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel, and Steel Authority of India have risen 8-18% in the last three-month period, outperforming a nearly 9% decline in the benchmark Nifty 50. The three-year safeguard duty on steel was implemented last December.

Robust steel prices in India are also backed by robust underlying demand, with production of crude steel up more than 11% on-year to 153.61 million tonnes (MT) between April and February, while consumption rose by 7.2% to 147.7 MT in the same period.

India is the world’s second largest producer and consumer of steel after China. It its latest demand outlook, the World Steel Association estimated steel demand in India at around 9% each in 2025 and 2026, driven by continued growth across sectors.

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Domestic companies having a strong market presence, higher raw material integration, low leverage and greater exposure to the domestic market are strongly placed, Antique Stock Broking said in a recent report, picking Tata Steel as its preferred pick.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CABM) implemented in Europe earlier this year should support prices in the region, the brokerage said, which will help Tata Steel’s operations there. Steel prices in Europe have surged 6% sequentially in March and are 24% higher from the previous year.