Mumbai: India is expected to reach herd immunity for Covid-19 by February 2023, with current vaccine supply deals and early inoculation drives giving the edge to the US, the UK and Canada.
The estimates are also based on domestic production being supplied first to the host country, according to research by London-based Airfinity, a science analytics company.
The forecasts suggest that the US and Canada are expected to hit herd immunity by the second quarter of 2021, Japan in April 2022 and India in 2023.
Matt Linley, senior life science analyst at Airfinity, said that for the herd immunity forecasts, it looked at expected vaccine production with time (which is risk-adjusted based on targets not being met), location of production and supply deals to each country (which is risk-adjusted based on cold-chain requirements). The estimates take into account that domestic production will likely go to the host country first.
Airfinity also assessed other factors such as data on vaccine efficacy (where given or using trial protocol targets). It predicted likely approval times for vaccines based on its trial forecast model to determine when phase III results will be given.
ADVERTISEMENT
Even though India will be the second-biggest Covid-19 vaccine producer by the end of 2021 with 2.75 billion doses – the US is first with 2.77 billion doses – the lack of guidance on vaccine purchases and a vaccination list make the country one of the last to reach vaccine-induced immunity.
Estimates suggest 60% of each country’s population must be vaccinated to break the chain of transmission. India’s health ministry has suggested that it won’t be vaccinating the entire country and only roughly 300 million people will be vaccinated in the initial phase.
Has the U.S attained herd immunity against human metapneumovirus or could there be a lockdown like situation? Here's what experts are saying2025-01-04T13:49:53Z
