India in the hot seat as blackout risks rise with temperature

India is likely to endure a blistering summer until monsoon rains arrive in June, with higher-than-average heat already straining power grids at a time when the country is grappling with energy shortages.

The India Meteorological Department — which in March forecast a higher than normal number of heat days and has since issued warnings — is set to provide its May outlook on Friday, covering what is typically the hottest period of the year.

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Yet the world’s most populous nation is already struggling to cope under the pressure of a warmer-than-usual April and the fallout from the war in the Persian Gulf. With vital energy suppliers cut off from world markets, India has been left short of crude, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking.

All the while, heat is pushing up electricity demand to unprecedented levels, triggering blackouts as infrastructure and generation struggle to cope. Temperatures have surged beyond 40C (104F) — punishing levels, given the humidity — and nights offer only mild relief, forcing residents to run cooling appliances around the clock.

Data from digital air-quality monitoring platform AQI earlier this week showed that every one of the 50 hottest cities in the world were in India.

“India occupied the entire list, from rank 1 to rank 50,” AQI said in a report. “This is not a normal April. And it demands a serious, data-grounded reckoning.”

The rankings are based on sustained temperatures through 24 hours of the day on April 27. A city can report a scorching afternoon maximum, but could rank lower if it cools off during the nights, AQI said, explaining the methodology.

At the top of the list was Banda, an arid town in the water-starved Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh. According to AQI, it hit a top temperature of 46.2C (just over 115 F) during the day — but its lowest, which typically comes after the midnight, was 34.7C, a level higher than what most of Europe considers a dangerous summer heat wave. (IMD put the maximum on the day at an even loftier 47.6C.)

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All the while, this sustained heat means round-the clock demand for power and is testing the ability of India’s electricity system to provide uninterrupted supply.

The rapid addition of renewable capacity over the past decade and the more recent revival of coal-fired generation have ensured there is enough power-station capacity to meet daytime requirement. But without solar, which accounts for about 30% of total generation capacity, nights are a challenge.

All the more so with LNG imports hampered by the war, starving gas-power plants that can provide a vital bridge. Almost 21 gigawatts of coal and nuclear power capacity, meanwhile, is under maintenance shutdowns as of Tuesday, according to government data, mostly due to forced outages.

Since temperatures shot up this April, India has reported night-time shortfalls of as high as 5.4 gigawatts — the equivalent of serving 2.7 million rural homes.

With blackouts becoming more frequent, residents have aired complaints on social media and, in some cases reported by local media, on the streets. In Punjab, among the earliest provinces to be hit by scheduled blackouts, the main opposition party Shiromani Akali Dal has organized a protest.

Generation deficits are just one reason for such blackouts. Another major factor is the impact of high heat on power equipment, as overloading compounds stress created by temperatures.

“Consumers need to be more diligent,” said Sarnath Ganguly, senior vice president at Noida Power Co. Ltd., which distributes power in Noida, an industrial city bordering New Delhi. Distribution companies should identify overloaded transformers and improve capacity well before the summer, he said.

“Both sides need to maintain such discipline to prevent outages,” Ganguly said.