EL Nino to hit India's energy system harder than anywhere else in world: CREA report

New Delhi: This year's El Nino will hit India's energy system harder than anywhere else, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

El Nino is the recurrent weather pattern that drives up global temperatures.

India faces a dual challenge -- not only will the falling winds and rainfall associated with El Nino cut the country's power generation from turbines and hydropower but the warmer temperatures will also drive up demand for power-hungry air conditioning.


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The report said additional cooling demand could total 10 TWh within a year -- the equivalent of a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity use.

The analysis models the impact of the forecast transition from La Nina to El Nino on India's power sector from July 2026 to June 2027.

La Nina is the cold phase of El Nino.

"Combine the lost output from renewables and the increased demand for power, and India could face a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh (terrawatt hour). Currently, the most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2.

"In the most severe scenario, the extra coal generation reaches 24 TWh, roughly half of India's entire increase in coal burn last year," the analysis said.

The 2026 El Nino is a foretaste of extreme weather events that are becoming more common in a warming world. With El Nino occurring on a two-to-seven-year cycle, the extent to which India can meet or exceed its solar and storage deployment targets is the key metric for grid resilience.

"India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Nino will raise the stakes again -- putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming," the report said.

It said India must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably.

Record demand peaks like the 270 GW set in May are routinely cited to argue the case for new coal capacity. But India's coal-fired power plants are facing serious challenges in keeping up with the energy demand curve and operating with the flexibility the grid requires throughout the day.

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As a result of this inflexibility, grid operators curtailed around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year just to keep coal plants running.

However, there is an alternate, the analysis pointed out -- solar power.

"Solar power is playing an ever-increasing role in powering India, now meeting 24 pc of daytime power demand. Solar generation is also far less affected by El Nino, meaning that every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns like this one," it said.