El Nino threatens to fuel coal power surge in India, study says

A super El Niño risks straining India’s power grid more than any other electricity network globally and would slow the country’s shift away from coal, according to a new study.

Rising demand for air conditioning, coupled with lower output from hydroelectric units and wind farms, could drive an estimated 18 terawatt-hour power deficit in the 12 months starting from July, said the report published Monday by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a nonprofit.

ALSO READ | Fall in global crude prices brightens fiscal outlook, El Nino risks linger


The shortfall, the largest among 110 countries analysed, would most likely need to be met with an increase in coal-fired electricity generation, CREA said.India forecasts coal’s share in the nation’s generation mix will fall to 64% by 2027 and to nearly 50% over the next decade, but it remains at more than 70% even after a drop in thermal power production last year. Extreme conditions like a potential super El Niño — a weather pattern that drives up global temperatures — threaten to slow down the transition to cleaner electricity.

While India is proving successful in deploying solar farms, “battery storage and grid infrastructure have to be accelerated,” to enable the nation to begin to reduce the need for fossil fuels, Nandikesh Sivalingam, director at CREA, said in an interview.

“While we run the existing coal plants, whatever new demand is going to come should be absorbed by clean technologies,” Sivalingam said.

Solar acted as a critical buffer against soaring temperatures this year. Between January and May, the technology met almost a quarter of daytime peak electricity consumption, helping to keep thermal power output below 2024 levels despite record-breaking heat waves.

Adding battery energy storage systems would allow India to further limit its reliance on coal, especially during the evening hours, CREA said.