Ukraine strikes on Russian oil ports put India’s refining lifeline at risk, IEA warns

Ukraine’s escalating drone attacks on Russia’s key oil-export hubs in the Baltic and Black seas are emerging as a fresh risk to India’s crude supply chain, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of near-term disruptions to refining operations.

In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency flagged that a heavy concentration of India-bound Russian crude flows through just three ports — Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk — all of which have recently come under repeated Ukrainian drone strikes.

Also Read: Trump’s Hormuz blockade: What’s at stake amid global chaos and ripple risks for India


Last year, these terminals accounted for about 80% of Russia’s crude exports to India, underscoring the vulnerability of supply routes. “Any prolonged disruption to Russian port availability could significantly affect Indian refining operations in the coming weeks,” the IEA said.

The warning comes at a time when Russian oil has become central to India’s energy strategy. Following Western sanctions on Moscow after the Ukraine war, India ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude, turning it into a key feedstock for domestic refiners.

That reliance has only deepened amid volatility triggered by the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has tightened global supplies and pushed up prices. Alternative sourcing options, including from Iran, have remained constrained due to geopolitical risks and supply chain complexities.

Also Read: Iran keeping close contact with India on ship transit: Envoy

India’s imports of Russian crude averaged 1.98 million barrels per day in March — the highest since June 2023 — according to data from Kpler. The IEA noted that 12 Indian refineries processed Russian crude in March, up from seven in February, reflecting the growing dependence.

Complicating matters further, a 30-day U.S. waiver that allowed continued purchases of Russian oil expired on April 11. India, along with other Asian buyers, is now pushing Washington for an extension even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified its strategy of targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure — including ports, pipelines and refineries — in a bid to curb Moscow’s revenues from high oil prices.

While loadings at the affected ports have resumed, volumes from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk remain constrained, according to the IEA and Bloomberg data. Before the attacks, the three ports together handled nearly 60% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports.

The combination of physical disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty and policy risks is now exposing a critical weak link in India’s oil supply chain — one that could tighten feedstock availability and pressure refining margins in the weeks ahead.