IOC, BPCL & HPCL likely to post Rs 14,470 crore profit in Q2

IndianOil, BPCL and HPCL are estimated to report a combined profit of ₹14,470 crore in the July-September quarter, against a loss of ₹18,150 crore in April-June, if current trends hold, according to a brokerage. Strong refining margins and a sharp improvement in marketing margins are expected to drive the turnaround.

"Given the trends seen in the quarter so far, although recent weeks have seen a sharp decline in integrated margins, Q2 (till date) averages are still sharply higher than Q1 levels," ICICI Securities said in a report on Wednesday. "Even assuming similar trends continue for the rest of September, our estimates suggest Q2 could still see the oil marketing companies (OMCs) reporting positive operating profits and profit after tax."

IndianOil is estimated to report a profit of ₹7,303 crore in the second quarter, against a loss of ₹2,661 crore in the first quarter, according to the brokerage. BPCL is estimated to report a profit of ₹4,520 crore against a loss of ₹3,962 crore, and HPCL a profit of ₹2,647 crore against a loss of ₹11,526 crore.


The turnaround will be driven mainly by a recovery in marketing margins, estimated at ₹2.9 a litre on petrol and ₹1.3 on diesel for all three companies. In the first quarter, the companies had negative margins of ₹6.1 on petrol and ₹18.9 on diesel.

Refining margins for IndianOil are expected to remain broadly unchanged at $15 per barrel in the second quarter, compared with $15.6 in the first quarter. Margins are, however, estimated to shrink to $18 per barrel from $41.4 for BPCL and to $16 per barrel from $23.8 for HPCL.

A sharp change in oil prices or pump prices could result in quarterly earnings that differ significantly from the brokerage's estimates.

Intensifying conflict in the Gulf region and limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing up oil prices. Brent, the international crude benchmark, topped $100 per barrel on Wednesday after the US hit multiple Iranian oil tankers. Iran also attacked US assets in the region. The conflict between Iran's ally Yemen's Houthis and Saudi Arabia also appears to be widening, with more attacks on each other, including an attack on a Saudi refinery.