India's Russian crude imports fall to five-month low as refiners diversify supplies

New Delhi: India's imports of Russian crude fell to about 1.75 million barrels a day in September, their lowest level since April, as refiners diversified purchases amid geopolitical risks, even as the country's overall crude intake rose sharply on stronger refinery runs, according to ship tracking data.

India's total crude imports averaged about 5.3 million barrels a day in September, up roughly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August and 700,000 barrels a day from a year earlier, according to data from global commodities data and analytics firm Kpler.

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India imported an average of 1.74 million bpd of Russian crude in September. The volumes imported were the lowest since 1.58 million bpd of Russian crude imports in April. It compared with 2.02 million bpd of Russian imports in August and 2.65 million bpd in July.

Iraq and Saudi Arabia made up for the drop in Russian volumes. Iraq supplied some 575,000 bpd of crude this month, up from 163,000 in August. Saudi volumes also rose to 566,000 bpd in September from 347,000 bpd last month. The UAE supplied 480,000 bpd, down from 546,000 bpd in August.

Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager (Modelling) at Kpler, said the decline in Russian flows comes as Washington continues to pressure buyers of Russian oil, prompting Indian refiners to keep their sourcing options flexible.

Russia nevertheless remains a major component of India's crude basket, with buying decisions continuing to be driven primarily by economics, availability and refinery compatibility, he said.

The latest reduction in Russian volumes does not indicate a wholesale shift away from Russian crude, but Indian refiners could exercise greater caution if the US announces unilateral punitive measures targeting India over purchases of Russian oil, he said.

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According to Ritolia, during any period of uncertainty, refiners could reduce - rather than halt - Russian purchases while assessing enforcement, potential waivers and the availability of alternative supplies, a pattern seen during previous periods of heightened scrutiny.

The decline in Russian crude has been offset in large part by higher Middle Eastern supplies, he said, adding imports from the region are estimated at about 3 mbd in September, broadly returning to pre-war levels, with higher flows from Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Improving crude movements through the Strait of Hormuz, along with ship-to-ship transfers and other logistical arrangements, have helped Indian refiners rebuild Middle Eastern purchases as regional supply availability improves.

African and Venezuelan barrels have also contributed to the diversification of India's crude slate, highlighting refiners' ability to switch between suppliers as relative prices, availability and geopolitical risks change.

Ritolia said the overall increase in crude imports reflects both stronger domestic fuel demand and high refinery utilisation. Export-oriented plants are also running at elevated rates to benefit from strong international product margins and a tight global refined-products market.

"Overall, September highlights the flexibility of Indian refiners to switch between suppliers depending on economics, availability and geopolitical/logistical risks, while keeping crude imports elevated to support strong refinery utilisation," he said.

India became an important buyer of Russian crude since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Western sanctions and a price cap regime prompted Russia to redirect more of its oil toward Asian buyers. Russian barrels have subsequently become an important part of India's crude supply mix.

Ritolia said Russia, traditionally a net exporter of crude and refined products, has recently begun importing oil products from India after Ukrainian attacks disrupted Russian refinery operations and reduced domestic high-octane gasoline production.

Russia has sought to replace part of the lost output by relaxing domestic motor-fuel quality standards and increasing rail imports from neighbouring countries.

Seaborne imports from India, which began in July, remain relatively small, accounting for about 4 per cent of Russian domestic demand for the affected products in the third quarter of 2026, according to Kpler.

The shipments also represent only a limited outlet for India's overall oil-product exports, he said, adding that the recent trade therefore reflects a temporary shift in regional supply flows caused by refinery disruptions rather than a broad change in the underlying Russia-India energy relationship.