India set to scale back Russian oil imports if US waiver lapses

Indian oil refiners may be forced to scale back imports of Russian crude if a US sanctions waiver is not extended beyond this weekend, with local processors grappling with the fallout from the Iran war.

The US hasn’t clarified whether it will extend the waiver allowing countries including India to continue buying the barrels after May 16, according to people familiar with Indian refiners’ outlook, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. If it isn’t, local processors could be forced to source alternative and pricier spot barrels from elsewhere, they said.

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So far in May, imports of Russian oil have been running at a record 2.3 million barrels a day, according to Kpler data, as the waiver allowed imports of already-loaded Russian oil. But if no new vessels with Moscow’s crude are seen headed to India, full-month flows may drop to 1.9 million barrels a day.

The oil market has been upended by the Iran war, which choked off substantial flows from the Persian Gulf to major buyers including India, the third-largest crude importer. As part of efforts to contain soaring prices, the US first issued an India-specific waiver against taking Russian oil on March 5, allowing refiners to buy stranded cargoes. A week later, the US relaxation was broadened globally, and — following an extension — it is now due to expire on May 16.

Ahead of that deadline, India’s two biggest state refiners — Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. — bought crude from West Africa and the US this week, according to traders familiar with the matter. These were so-called prompt cargoes, which would load as soon as this month, they said.

In addition, BPCL has begun exploring short-term supply agreements for Azeri and African grades to diversify away from its dependence on the Persian Gulf, people familiar with the discussions said.

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IOC and BPCL didn’t respond to requests for comment. India’s oil ministry didn’t reply to email seeking comment.

The US curbs against Russian oil were part of efforts by Washington to raise the pressure against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The relexation reflects the trade-offs the Trump administration has been forced adopt for its war against Tehran, which began in February and led to the near-total closure of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.