ADNOC trading chief Philippe Khoury flags August as tipping point for oil prices if Iran war supply crisis persists

London: August could mark a tipping point for much higher oil prices if demand rises and the Iran war supply crisis persists, an Abu Dhabi state oil company executive said on Tuesday, adding it could take up ‌to a ⁠year ⁠for supply chains to recover even after flows normalise. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz will remain partial and below pre-war levels as long as uncertainty over peace persists, Philippe Khoury, ADNOC's executive vice president for sales and trading, told the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.

"It's ⁠not going ‌to resume like a flip ​of a ​switch," Khoury said, adding that some elements of ⁠the supply chain would take weeks to restore ​and others months, with a full return ​to pre-war conditions potentially taking until mid-2027. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said last month there would be no full return of Hormuz flows until the first or second quarter of 2027.

Economies have been shrinking demand, ‌and if they continue to do so, prices could stay around $100 a barrel, Khoury said. But ​if demand ​recovers and ⁠the crisis extends, August could be the tipping point for much higher prices, he added.


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It was not clear how ​much further demand can shrink, he said.

"I think the way we see things today, it's difficult to predict a very bright, you know, outcome," he said of prices.

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