Price hikes on the horizon: Expect a hit on your budget as Iran war's impact becomes clear

Consumer-focused companies in India were largely insulated from the full effects of the West Asia conflict in the March quarter, as the disturbance was limited to just one month of Q4. Even so, their quarterly updates point to mounting inflationary pressures and rising input expenses caused by elevated crude oil prices, suggesting that price increases may be on the horizon, The Times of India reported on April 8.

Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) indicated that with Brent crude priced between $100–110 and palm oil at 4500–4800 MYR, it anticipates a cost impact in the range of 6–9%.

The company said it expects to absorb most of this pressure through a mix of pricing adjustments, efficiency measures, operating leverage, and careful optimisation of media spending, while also forecasting persistent inflation through the first half of FY27.


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There is a risk that Iran's war's impact could offset the gains from GST reductions and dampen consumption, which had only started to recover in Q4FY26 after an extended period of weakness.

Adding to the uncertainty, private forecaster Skymet has predicted a below-normal monsoon, which could negatively affect rural demand.

The rural market has been a major contributor to FMCG growth in recent quarters, particularly as high inflation and stagnant incomes have curbed spending among urban consumers.

Dabur stated that it is closely monitoring the changing geopolitical situation and will continue to take preventive steps to protect its operations and manage costs effectively.

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Marico, which expects double-digit growth in operating profit for Q4, emphasised that the broader economic impact of developments in West Asia remains an important factor to track. It noted that increasing prices of vegetable oils and other crude-linked inputs are pushing costs higher, and the company intends to manage this through careful use of pricing strategies across its brands.

Across the wider consumer space, initial signs of pressure are becoming visible. In the quick-service restaurant segment, Jubilant FoodWorks reported that Domino’s India posted like-for-like growth of only 0.2% in Q4, indicating a drop in same-store sales.

Analysts have linked this performance to shortages in commercial LPG supply, highlighting that more than 95% of the company’s outlets rely on LPG, Elara Securities said.