Dhanteras gold, silver sales may rise 10% despite buyers opting for lighter jewellery: AIJGF

The value of gold and silver jewellery and coin sales during Dhanteras is expected to rise around 10% year-on-year to Rs 66,000 crore, even as elevated prices push consumers towards lighter jewellery and smaller purchases, the All India Jewellers and Goldsmith Federation (AIJGF) said on Thursday.

The federation expects festive and wedding-related purchases to support sales, with some consumers bringing forward their buying plans following a recent rebound in gold prices. However, the higher prices are likely to keep the overall quantity of gold and silver sold below last year's levels.

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“Customers still want to buy, but higher prices mean their budgets purchase fewer grams,” said Pankaj Arora, national president of AIJGF. The federation expects jewellery and coin sales to reach around Rs 66,000 crore, supported by festive purchases and requirements for the approaching wedding season, he added.

The sales estimate compares with the Rs 60,000 crore figure reported by the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) for Dhanteras in 2025.

Nitin Kedia, national general secretary of AIJGF, said the rebound in gold prices after the US midterm elections had reduced hesitation among some buyers who were waiting for prices to fall further.

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“The rebound after the US elections has reduced hesitation among some customers who were waiting for lower prices,” Kedia said, adding that higher household expenses and expensive gold and silver continued to limit purchasing capacity.

He said consumers could complete their festive purchases by opting for fewer grams, making purchase volumes as important as sales value in assessing the season's performance.

World Gold Council's third-quarter report, released on November 3, also points to a divergence between spending and purchase volumes. India's gold jewellery demand fell 20% year-on-year to 99.9 tonnes in July-September, from 125 tonnes a year earlier. However, the value of jewellery demand rose 16% to Rs 1.48 lakh crore.

Gold bar and coin demand rose 9% sequentially to 55 tonnes during the quarter, but remained 40% lower than in the year-ago period, according to the report.

Average domestic gold prices during the quarter were around 45% higher year-on-year, prompting consumers to favour lighter jewellery, the World Gold Council said.

AIJGF said a similar trend is expected during the festive season, with lightweight jewellery, smaller coins and exchanges of old ornaments helping consumers manage their budgets. Exchanging existing jewellery towards a new purchase can also reduce the additional cash outlay for households.

The federation said higher food, energy and transport costs had squeezed festive budgets, leaving households with less money for discretionary purchases. Retail inflation stood at 5.54% in September, while food inflation was 7.74%, according to official data.