India’s consumer durables market may reach Rs 3.25 lakh crore by 2030: BCG-CII report

India’s consumer durables market is expected to grow 8-10% annually and reach Rs 3-3.25 lakh crore by 2030, creating a domestic value-addition opportunity of Rs 40,000-50,000 crore across materials and component manufacturing, according to a joint report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

The report said India would remain one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer durables markets over the next five years. Growth will be supported by rising household penetration, nuclear families, higher incomes, easier financing, wider distribution and premiumisation.

“India is set to remain the fastest-growing major consumer durables market, growing 8-10 per cent annually till 2030 and reach USD 30-35 billion by 2030, with Room Airconditioner growth leading the market,” the report said.


China, the world’s largest consumer durables market, is expected to grow 1-2% annually through 2030. The US market is projected to expand by 3%, while Japan is expected to grow 1-3%, the report said.

However, the report warned that a significant part of India’s growth opportunity could continue to depend on imports unless domestic manufacturing capacity for components and materials expands.

Localisation gap

The localisation of bill of materials currently ranges between 25% and 70% across consumer durables categories. Television and air-conditioner manufacturing has lower localisation, while refrigerators and washing machines have higher levels, according to the report.

This is expected to increase to 30-80% by 2030 as domestic component and material capacity improves.

The report identified TV display panels, room air-conditioner compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing-machine motors as key areas where the localisation gap remains.

“As domestic component and material capacity ramps up, localisation is estimated to rise to 30–80% by 2030,” it said.

“Technology partnerships and joint ventures will be required in areas where know-how is concentrated among a few global suppliers, while cluster-led manufacturing can help address scale and cost disadvantages.”

India’s exports remain limited

Global consumer durables exports are expected to reach USD 900-950 billion by 2030. However, India’s share of global trade remains below 1%, the report said.

India’s exports are growing but remain concentrated in neighbouring markets and regions such as SAARC countries and the UAE. The country has limited presence in major global import markets.

“India faces a material cost disadvantage vs leading exporters, driven by scale, backward integration, technology & policy support gaps, and compounded by limited testing, certification & compliance infrastructure,” the report said.

The report cited Thailand as an example of a coordinated export ecosystem. The country’s share of global air-conditioner exports rose from 16% in 2010 to 22% in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest air-conditioner exporter.

To improve its competitiveness, India needs manufacturing clusters connected to component suppliers, greater support for joint ventures and technology acquisition, shared testing and certification facilities, lower financing costs and better access to priority markets, the report said.

“India will need a similarly coordinated export ecosystem to close its competitiveness gap, building on existing measures such as duty remission, zero-duty capital-goods imports and export-credit support,” it said.

Need for higher research spending

India’s top listed consumer durables companies invest less than 1% of their revenue in research and development, compared with 1-4% for global peers, according to the report.

This limits the sector’s ability to move from manufacturing scale to technology leadership.

“Closing this gap requires support targeted at innovation, not just building capacity,” it said.

The report also said Indian business leaders were more optimistic about the returns from artificial intelligence than their global counterparts. However, workforce readiness remains limited.

Generative AI and agentic AI could improve efficiency in manufacturing, supply chains, product development and customer service. The technologies could help Indian companies improve competitiveness and support export growth, the report said.