Vehicle registrations fall 24% in October on high base

New Delhi: Registrations of vehicles across categories in October fell 24% to 3.17 million, which industry insiders attributed to base effect as the year-earlier numbers were boosted by an early festive season and a sudden surge in demand after GST rate revision.

Vehicle registrations with state road transport departments, seen as a proxy for retail sales as most manufacturers report only wholesale dispatches to dealerships, last month were the second-highest on record, after October last year, indicating strong customer demand.

Vehicle registrations last month have to be read in context on the high base of October 2025, said Sai Giridhar, president of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association, which compiled the data from the government’s Vahan portal.


“The year-on-year decline is almost entirely optical,” he said. “Last October was an exceptional month that carried both Navratri and Deepawali together, over and above the pent-up demand released after the GST 2.0 rate cuts of 22nd September 2025. This year, Navratri fell in October while Dhanteras and Diwali moved into November.”

Registration of two-wheelers dropped 28% to 2.32 million units last month, while that of passenger vehicles slid 14% to 507,768 units. While retail sales dropped, both segments posted strong growth in wholesale numbers last month, as manufacturers stepped up dispatches to dealerships ahead of Dhanteras and Diwali, ET reported earlier this week.

Registration of commercial vehicles, three-wheelers and tractors grew 2%, 4% and 3%, respectively, posting their best-ever October sales this year.

Giridhar said the segments that registered the sharpest decline in sales were those most dependent on Deepawali demand.

Retail sales of two-wheelers in rural markets, for instance, posted a 34% drop against 21% in urban areas. Vehicle sales were also lower in northern parts of the country, where customers largely make high-ticket purchases during Diwali.

Dealers expect these segments to lead sales in November, spurred by festive demand.

“Two-wheeler is the most festival- and rural-sensitive segment and last October captured the full Deepawali wave that this year falls in November. Yet month-on-month they rose 29.67%, and independent festive-window tracking shows two-wheeler registrations growing on a like-for-like basis,” Giridhar said.

Overall, the federation said, festive footfalls remained healthy, albeit tempered by localised rural stress in areas hit by deficient rains and a weak kharif. Fading of the advantage from last year’s GST revision after subsequent manufacturer price increases too weighs on sentiment in some areas.

In the commercial vehicle segment, growth last month was led by heavier trucks amid sustained freight movement, infrastructure development and the haulage of coal, iron ore and ecommerce cargo, indicating underlying strength of the economy.

Utility vehicles continued to drive sales in the passenger vehicle segment, even as demand for entry-level cars remained soft. Inventory of passenger vehicles in the sales channel currently is around 43-45 days, according to the federation.

With the Dhanteras-to-Diwali retail wave now under way, dealers expect inventory to reduce to around 30 days by the end of the calendar year.

Retail sales of electric vehicles, including two-wheelers, rose to an all-time high of about 355,000 units last month, up nearly 45% year-on-year, lifting the share of EVs in total sales to roughly 11.5% from about 6% a year. Last month was the best-ever October for electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles.

Giridhar said demand for electric vehicles was more than supply last month. “With petrol and diesel prices continuing to remain elevated, electric vehicle driving ranges now materially improved and EV prices increasingly on a par with comparable petrol and diesel models, buyer pull strengthened to the point where availability — not demand — became the binding constraint,” he said.

According to the federation, vehicle registrations look encouraging this month. Importantly, the rural and two-wheeler demand, which were pushed out of October due to the delayed festive season, is expected to land this month.

Dealers in the northern markets are reporting the firmest November expectations. They, in fact, expect sales to grow in the next 2-3 months.

Commercial vehicle dealers are positive of healthy sales on back of demand from infrastructure, mining and e-commerce sectors. Two-wheeler dealers are the most cautious as they watch rural cash flows, the progress of paddy procurement from November and the lingering effect of higher EMIs.

Giridhar is optimistic about the market staying strong. “Set against a longer lens, the fundamentals remain intact,” he said.