Fight or fade, Natwar has few choices

NEW DELHI: With the Congress having bundled him out after the Iraqi oil scam controversy, as well as for his ‘anti-party activities,’ Natwar Singh now faces a daunting choice.

He can either try to fight a tough battle by being a willing, if not optionless, pawn in the political plot being scripted by his new, but extremely wily anti-Congress friends, or be the latest swimmer to sink without a trace in the treacherous waters of Indian politics.

Mr Singh, who nurtured a 23 year-old political career in the cosy durbar of the Gandhi dynasty, now faces a rough and rude exposure to the unapologetically cruel world of realpolitik. That this is happening to him at the ripe age of 75 is also evidently testing his physical and mental fibre.

A day after his suspension, Mr Singh, making use of the inevitable media attention that follows every new rebel and villain alike, today played an innings of mixed character — some predictable aggression (as his latest characteristic, post-Volcker, outburst against the Prime minister), some significant ducking (like his refusal to attack Sonia Gandhi, after a loaded comment on Quottorochi last night, due to his ‘reverence’ for the Nehru family) and some painstaking defence (while facing queries on his three letters to the Iraqi authorities).

But to sustain the interest of the public and his new political friends, Mr Singh will have to play some new cards. He is promising some action tomorrow in the Rajya Sabha in the form of a personal statement, for which he has sought the permission of the Chairman. He is also threatening to stage a dharna if the Congress benches try to stop him from making the statement. There is also talks of his propping up a ‘morcha.’

According to sources, his new friends, like Yashwant Sinha of the BJP, Amar Singh of SP and Digvijay Singh of JD(U), belong to parties united only by their shared opposition to the Congress and hatred for the Gandhi family.

Aware that the contents of Mr Singh’s promised statement could thicken or defuse the new political plot, these new-found allies are insisting that Mr Singh make it spicy and explosive. They all met for a long time at BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha’s house today, helping Mr Singh to work and rework his draft statement.

It is clear that to sustain his new political sponsorship, the lonely Mr Singh will be asked to overcome his ‘emotional binding’ with the Gandhi family, and ‘sing’ against the Congress, and more importantly, against Ms Gandhi. This could be the real test for a man who made a career by being the doorkeeper of the Dynasty and by flaunting his four-decade long close links with it ‘since the days of Panditji.’ Many feel the BJP and SP could dump Mr Singh in no time if he fails provide ammunition for their attack on Ms Gandhi.

Even if Mr Singh musters the will to deliver, as was done in the past by some other loyalists-turned-rebels of the Gandhi durbar, he will also be aware of the pitfalls he might face, given his understanding of the games played out in the dark corridors of power.

“He could at best be a temporary irritant for us, nothing more,” said a Congress leader with dry reference to the ongoing investigations against Mr Singh and his son by various investigating agencies. “After all, the Pathak Authority was just a fact-finding exercise, the real heat could come from the Enforcement Directorate and IT investigations.”

Unlike the SP, which could stick with Mr Singh as long as he speaks out against Ms Gandhi, many BJP leaders may not like to be associated with him if further exposes make him sink deeper into the oil mess.

Already, many senior BJP leaders, aware that they had launched a successful campaign to get Mr Singh out of the cabinet, and had even demanded his arrest and prosecution, have quickly distanced themselves from LK Advani’s attempt to delink the Pathak-hit Gandhi loyalist from the Congress by repackaging him as a ‘scapegoat’. In the larger anti-Congress scheme of the main Opposition party, an oil-tainted Natwar may not have lasting utility.

Mr Singh could also find his attempts to tango with the BJP and Left as being too ambitious, given the Saffron Party’s and Communist Camp’s larger ideological and fundamental differences and their clashing political goals — clearly demonstrated in the latter’s unwillingness to go all-out against the UPA regime.

In fact, the ruling establishment has also begun the process of unmasking Mr Singh’s post-Volcker “anti-imperialist face” by making public the significant role the former external affairs minister played in ushering in a new era of Indo-US strategic co-operation, and in clinching the Indo-US nuclear deal.

More importantly, those who know Mr Singh well are also sceptical about his capacity to fight a grim battle outside the Congress on a long-term basis.

Unlike a few exceptions, like the politically crafty and mass-based ex-Congressmen like VP Singh and Sharad Pawar who survived in their pockets after revolting against the party, this former diplomat lacks a personal base and appeal as well as the necessary political acumen. Yet, in the unpredictable game of Indian politics, Mr Singh is being closely watched as begins his hard journey from the cosy nest of 10 Janpath towards an unfamiliar world, with a few new friends, as an extremely ‘bitter and angry man.’